Calder Trophy Race 2026: Schaefer Dominates, Sennecke and Demidov Battle for Second

The 2026 Calder Trophy race isn't really a race anymore — it's Matthew Schaefer lapping the field while two exceptional forwards fight over silver.

The New York Islanders' 18-year-old defenseman sits at -6000 on betting boards after becoming the youngest blueliner in NHL history to pot 20 goals in a single season. That number isn't a typo. A bettor would need to put down six thousand dollars to win a hundred back. Beckett Sennecke and Ivan Demidov are tied at 51 points atop the rookie scoring leaderboard, but neither forward can match what Schaefer is doing from the back end — the kind of two-way dominance that hasn't been seen from an 18-year-old defenseman in the modern era.

With roughly 15 games left in the 2025-26 regular season, here's where the Calder Trophy race 2026 stands and why Schaefer's candidacy has crossed from "strong favorite" into "all-time rookie season" territory.

Schaefer Has Separated Himself From Everyone

Let's get the uncomfortable truth out of the way first: this thing is over.

Matthew Schaefer received all 16 first-place votes in NHL.com's Trophy Tracker poll at the three-quarter mark — the maximum 80 voting points possible. Sennecke pulled 56 points. Demidov got 54. That's not close. That's a coronation.

But the voting is just the validation. The numbers are what tell the real story.

Schaefer has 20 goals and 26 assists for 46 points in 64 games while averaging a team-high 24 minutes and 16 seconds of ice time per night. He leads all first-year defensemen in assists, points, power-play points (15), shots on goal (156), blocked shots (88), and average ice time. He's drawn 60 penalties this season — more than any other rookie with 50-plus games played.

On March 1, Schaefer buried two goals in a 5-4 win against the Florida Panthers and became the youngest defenseman in NHL history at 18 years and 177 days to reach 20 goals in a season. He's the fourth rookie D-man ever to hit that mark, joining Brian Leetch (23 goals in 1988-89), Barry Beck (22 in 1977-78), and Larry Murphy (22 in 1980-81).

Leetch's record of 23 goals sits just three away. Schaefer has 15 games to get there.

"He's playing like a 10-year veteran. The processing speed, the gap control, the way he jumps into rushes — there's nothing rookie about his game except his age." — Eastern Conference scout

The advanced metrics are equally absurd. Schaefer's 11.7 expected goals rank third among all NHL defensemen this season, trailing only Jakob Chychrun (16.6) and Cale Makar (14.8). He's not just good for a rookie. He's elite by any standard.

And here's the part that doesn't get enough attention: Schaefer is a legitimate dark horse for the Norris Trophy. An 18-year-old. Playing on Long Island. In his first NHL season. The Islanders have leaned on him like a franchise cornerstone from day one, and he's responded by playing the most minutes of any rookie in the league while producing at a rate that would make most veteran blueliners jealous.

If he finishes this season with 25-plus goals, he'd be the first rookie defenseman ever to do it. Period.

Sennecke and Demidov — Tied at 51 Points

While Schaefer has the Calder locked up, the battle for second place is genuinely compelling — and it tightened significantly on March 11.

Ivan Demidov delivered a go-ahead goal with 7:20 remaining in Montreal's 3-2 comeback win over Ottawa, burying a rebound off Alex Newhook's shot as he crashed the crease. That goal officially tied him with Beckett Sennecke at 51 points for the rookie scoring lead.

But that's where the similarities end. These two are building their rookie campaigns with completely different toolkits.

Beckett Sennecke is a 6-foot-3, 205-pound power forward who plays like he's been in the NHL for five years. The third overall pick in 2024 has 20 goals and 31 assists in 63 games, averaging 17:37 of ice time. He became the fastest rookie in Ducks franchise history to reach 50 points, doing it in 61 games and shattering Bobby Ryan's 69-game mark from 2008-09. His hat trick against Calgary on January 25 — capped by an overtime winner — was the kind of moment that separates good rookies from special ones.

Sennecke isn't just scoring. He's been central to Anaheim's unexpected push toward the Pacific Division lead. The Ducks' playoff positioning looks fundamentally different with him in the lineup versus without him.

Ivan Demidov is the artist to Sennecke's bulldozer. The 20-year-old Russian winger has 14 goals and 37 assists, leading all rookies in helpers. His 2.54 points-per-60 minutes ranks 19th among all qualified NHL skaters — not rookies, all skaters. The names around him on that list? Nikita Kucherov. Nathan MacKinnon. Mitch Marner.

His assists-per-60 rate of 1.78 sits sixth in the entire league. The kid from Moscow processes the game at an elite level, finding passing lanes that simply don't exist for most players. Paired with Oliver Kapanen and Juraj Slafkovsky on Montreal's top lines, Demidov has been the engine of the Canadiens' offensive resurgence.

He won Rookie of the Month for December after putting up 10 goals and 23 assists through his first 39 games, and he's been on a 10-point tear across his last 11 outings.

The points lead between Sennecke and Demidov will likely flip back and forth over the final stretch. But here's the thing — neither of them is catching Schaefer for the Calder. What they're competing for is the narrative of who was the best forward in this rookie class.

The Dark Horses Still in the Conversation

Three other names belong in the Calder conversation, even if they're playing for bronze at this point.

Jesper Wallstedt had one of the most remarkable starts to a goaltending career in NHL history. The Minnesota Wild netminder went 8-0-2 with a .944 save percentage and five shutouts through his first 15 career starts. Five shutouts in 15 games — only Frank Brimsek of the 1938-39 Boston Bruins reached that number faster, doing it in nine starts.

Wallstedt won Rookie of the Month for November after going 6-0 with a 1.14 GAA, .967 save percentage, and three shutouts in a single month. He was Sweden's third goaltender at the Milan-Cortina Olympics.

But since January, reality has bitten hard. Wallstedt has gone 3-4-2 with a 3.92 GAA and .882 save percentage in 10 starts. That kind of second-half regression makes it nearly impossible to maintain a Calder argument against skaters producing every night.

Oliver Kapanen is the forgotten man in Montreal's own locker room. While Demidov gets the Calder buzz, the Finnish center has quietly potted 19 goals and 32 points in 60 games — playing a two-way game that would make any coach smile. He tied for the rookie goal-scoring lead earlier this season and represented Finland at the 2026 Olympics. Kapanen's defensive responsibility and physical play have cemented him as a future second-line anchor.

Alexander Nikishin of the Carolina Hurricanes has been a revelation defensively, though his offensive numbers trail Schaefer's significantly. The Russian blueliner's defensive game is arguably superior — some scouts say he'd have been an Olympic contender had Russia been allowed to participate in Milan-Cortina — but in a race against Schaefer's goal-scoring pace, the gap is too wide.

How This Rookie Class Stacks Up Historically

This might be the deepest Calder Trophy field in years. And Schaefer's individual campaign is tracking toward something historic.

For context, last season's winner Lane Hutson put up 66 points as a rookie defenseman for the Canadiens — a sensational year. Schaefer is on pace for roughly 56-58 points, but he's doing it at 18 years old (Hutson was 20) with 20 goals already (Hutson had 11). The goal-scoring element from the blue line is what makes Schaefer's season unprecedented.

Cale Makar won the Calder in 2019-20 after posting 50 points in 57 games as a 21-year-old. Schaefer is younger by three years and scoring goals at a higher clip.

Going further back, the last time a defenseman dominated the Calder Trophy race this thoroughly was Aaron Ekblad in 2014-15, who took 25 of 30 first-place votes. Schaefer took all 16 of 16. Unanimous.

The comparison that matters most is Leetch. His 23 rookie goals have stood as the record for 37 years. Schaefer needs three more in roughly 15 games. At his current pace of 0.31 goals per game, he projects to finish with 25 — which would shatter the record.

Brutal for Leetch's legacy. Beautiful for Islanders fans who haven't had a franchise-defining defenseman since Denis Potvin.

What the Insiders Are Saying

The consensus among analysts and insiders is overwhelming.

Steven Ellis of the Daily Faceoff put it bluntly in his March 10 deep dive: Schaefer's odds sitting at -6000 reflect a Calder Trophy race 2026 that's functionally over. He noted Schaefer's expected goals rank third among all blueliners and emphasized that Schaefer is the only rookie averaging over 19 minutes nightly with at least 50 games played.

NHL.com's three-quarter-season Trophy Tracker was unanimous: 80 out of 80 voting points. The writers' panel didn't give a single first-place vote to Sennecke or Demidov. The gap between first and second (80 vs 56 points) is the widest in any Trophy Tracker category this season.

The Hockey News' Tony Ferrari highlighted the Olympic connection, noting Schaefer was strong enough to warrant consideration for Team Canada's Olympic squad despite being 18. Ferrari wrote that Schaefer seems like a lock to make the next Canadian Olympic roster in four years.

From my perspective, what separates Schaefer isn't just the production — it's the responsibility. The Islanders don't shelter him. He plays the toughest minutes on the team, kills penalties, quarterbacks the top power-play unit, and plays 24-plus minutes a night. He's their most important player. At 18.

The Final Stretch — Three Stories Worth Watching

Fifteen games remain for most teams. Here's what to monitor in the Calder Trophy race 2026 down the stretch:

• Can Schaefer break Leetch's record? Three goals in 15 games seems very achievable at his pace. If he does it, he'll own the all-time record for goals by a rookie defenseman — a mark that's stood since Ronald Reagan was president. The Islanders' remaining schedule features several games against bottom-tier defenses that could provide opportunities.
• Who wins the rookie scoring title — Sennecke or Demidov? They're tied at 51. Sennecke has the goal-scoring edge (20 vs 14), while Demidov leads in assists (37 vs 31). Sennecke's Ducks are fighting for a Pacific Division crown, meaning higher-leverage games. Demidov's Canadiens are in a wild card battle. Expect this race to go to the final week.
• Does Wallstedt bounce back? The Wild need him. Minnesota's playoff positioning depends on getting the version of Wallstedt who dominated from October through December, not the one who's struggled since the calendar flipped. If he reels off a hot week, he could climb back into Calder conversations — but the window is closing fast.

The 2026 Calder Trophy race has given us one of the most dominant rookie defenseman seasons in NHL history, a tied scoring race between two electrifying forwards, and a goaltender who flirted with immortality before coming back to earth. Regardless of who wins — and at -6000, we all know who's winning — this rookie class has announced itself as one of the deepest in recent memory.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Calder Trophy?

Matthew Schaefer of the New York Islanders is the overwhelming favorite at -6000 betting odds. He received all 16 first-place votes in NHL.com's Trophy Tracker poll, earning the maximum 80 voting points.

How many goals does Matthew Schaefer have as a rookie?

Schaefer has 20 goals in 64 games, making him the youngest defenseman in NHL history (18 years, 177 days) to reach that milestone. He's three goals shy of Brian Leetch's all-time rookie defenseman record of 23.

Are Demidov and Sennecke tied in the rookie scoring race?

Yes. As of March 11, Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke are tied at 51 points atop the rookie scoring leaderboard. Sennecke leads in goals (20-14) while Demidov leads in assists (37-31).

Has a defenseman ever won the Calder Trophy?

Yes — defensemen have won the Calder multiple times, including Lane Hutson (2025), Cale Makar (2020), Aaron Ekblad (2015), and Brian Leetch (1989). Schaefer would be the fifth D-man to win it in the last 36 years.

What are the current Calder Trophy betting odds?

Matthew Schaefer sits at -6000, meaning a $6,000 wager returns just $100. Beckett Sennecke and Ivan Demidov are distant second and third. The odds imply Schaefer has roughly a 98% probability of winning.