Binnington Blues Trade Feels Inevitable This Summer
The Binnington Blues trade isn't a matter of speculation anymore. It's a countdown. NHL Network's Brian Lawton went on air and called it a “forgone conclusion” that St. Louis will move their Stanley Cup-winning goaltender this offseason. The Athletic's Jeremy Rutherford softened it slightly — maybe not before the deadline, but this summer? Almost certainly.
And here's the thing nobody wants to say out loud: the Blues already have their answer in net. Joel Hofer has been sensational since the Olympic break, posting a .948 save percentage and +11.17 Goals Saved Above Expected. That's not a backup auditioning for a job. That's a starter who's already won it.
So what's left to discuss? The contract. The no-trade clause. The destinations. And the bizarre, almost comical paradox of a goaltender who can't stop a beach ball in St. Louis but transforms into a brick wall the moment he puts on a Team Canada jersey.
Key Takeaways
- Trade status: Brian Lawton calls a Binnington Blues trade a “forgone conclusion” this offseason. Jeremy Rutherford says summer is the likely window.
- Contract: $6M AAV through 2026-27 with a 14-team no-trade list — meaning 18 teams remain eligible destinations
- Binnington's nightmare season: .867 SV%, 8-18-6 record, -23.8 GSAx — dead last among NHL starters
- Hofer's takeover: .904 SV%, 16-11-4 record, three shutouts. Since the break: .948 SV%, won five of his last six starts
- Interested teams: Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers identified as most interested, per reports. Edmonton and Vegas also circling.
Two Versions of Jordan Binnington
This is the part that makes scouts pull their hair out. There are two Jordan Binningtons. Pick one.
The first version backstopped Canada to a 4 Nations Face-Off championship in February 2025. He went 3-1-0 with a 2.37 GAA and .907 save percentage across four games, including 31 saves in the overtime title game against the United States. When Dylan Larkin fed Auston Matthews alone at the crease for what should've been the dagger, Binnington threw out his blocker and robbed him cold. Then he came back twelve months later and started every game for Canada at the Milan Cortina Olympics, arguably the single biggest reason they reached the gold medal game.
The second version? Horrific. An .867 save percentage in St. Louis this season. An 8-18-6 record. A -23.8 Goals Saved Above Expected — the worst mark of any starting goaltender in the entire NHL. Those numbers aren't “struggling.” They're catastrophic. He's letting in goals that AHL backups stop.
And then there's the temper. Always the temper. The water bottle thrown at Nazem Kadri's head during a TNT interview after Game 3 of the 2022 playoffs — Binnington later called it “a God-given opportunity.” The 10-minute misconduct for swinging his goalie stick at Kadri in a regular-season scrum. The reputation that follows him into every locker room conversation when GMs pick up the phone.
Doug Armstrong has tolerated it for years because Binnington won a Cup in 2019 and because, on his best nights, the guy competes like a maniac. But when you're the worst starter in hockey by every measurable metric? The leash runs out. Fast.
Binnington vs Hofer — The Numbers Say It All
Forget the narrative for a second. Look at the table.
| Goalie | GP | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO | AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer | 36 | 16-11-4 | 2.73 | .904 | 3 | $3.4M |
| Jordan Binnington | 32 | 8-18-6 | 3.65 | .867 | 0 | $6.0M |
Hofer costs $2.6 million less per year. He's got a .904 save percentage to Binnington's .867. Three shutouts to zero. Sixteen wins to eight. And since the Olympic break, Hofer has been on another planet entirely — a .948 save percentage, five wins in his last six starts, giving up two or fewer goals in all five victories. He's 25 years old with a two-year extension already locked in at $3.4M AAV through 2026-27.
From my perspective, this isn't even close. Hofer hasn't just taken the starting job. He's buried the competition. The only question remaining is whether Armstrong — or whoever replaces him, with Alex Steen reportedly being groomed for the GM chair — can find a trading partner willing to absorb Binnington's $6 million cap hit for one final season.
The Blues' Bigger Rebuild Picture
Context matters here. The Blues aren't just moving one goaltender. They're dismantling an era.
At the March trade deadline, Armstrong shipped captain Brayden Schenn to the Islanders for a first-round pick, a third-rounder, goalie prospect Marcus Gidlof, and forward Jonathan Drouin. He sent defenseman Justin Faulk to Detroit for another first-round pick, a third-rounder, defenseman Justin Holl, and prospect Dmitri Buchelnikov. Two franchise pillars gone. Four draft picks acquired. The message was loud.
Armstrong told reporters the Blues “are not in a rebuild.” Sure. But when you trade your captain and your top-four defenseman for draft capital and prospects, the line between “retool” and “rebuild” gets awfully thin.
The cap math supports this direction. St. Louis has only roughly $31.75 million in commitments for 2026-27 against a projected $104 million salary cap. That's over $70 million in available space. Trading Binnington's $6M clears even more room and hands the crease to a younger, cheaper, better goaltender. It's not complicated arithmetic.
Where Could Binnington Land?
The 14-team no-trade list narrows things, but 18 clubs remain eligible. And several have already expressed interest, per multiple reports.
- Montreal Canadiens: Desperate for a veteran goaltender to bridge the gap while their young core develops. Binnington's international pedigree and Cup ring carry weight in that market.
- Ottawa Senators: Have been linked to goaltending upgrades for two straight offseasons. One year of Binnington at $6M is a low-risk bet if he bounces back to even league-average numbers.
- Philadelphia Flyers: The goaltending has been a mess all year. Binnington's compete level — temper and all — might actually play well in Philly.
- Edmonton Oilers: Perennial Cup contenders who've struggled with goaltending consistency. A one-year rental with playoff experience fits their window.
The return won't be massive. A mid-round pick, maybe a B-level prospect. Armstrong isn't getting a first-rounder for a goaltender with an .867 save percentage and a reputation for losing his composure. But that's fine. The value isn't in the return — it's in the $6 million freed up and the message it sends to Hofer: this is your net now.
What's Next for Blues Goaltending
The Binnington Blues trade will almost certainly happen between the NHL Draft in late June and the opening of free agency on July 1. That's the sweet spot — teams finalize their rosters, goaltending needs crystallize, and Armstrong can shop the 14-team NTC list to find a willing partner.
Hofer is the future. He's proven it with his play, his age, and his contract. The 2019 Stanley Cup feels like a lifetime ago in hockey years, and Binnington's legacy in St. Louis — the run, the ring, the water bottles — is already cemented regardless of where he finishes his career. Sometimes the best trade is the one you make before you have to. The Blues are smart enough to know that. July is coming.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Blues trade Jordan Binnington?
All signs point to yes. NHL Network's Brian Lawton called it a “forgone conclusion,” and The Athletic's Jeremy Rutherford indicated the most likely window is this summer. With Joel Hofer seizing the starting role and the Blues retooling around younger players, a Binnington trade aligns with every part of the organization's direction.
What is Jordan Binnington's contract and trade clause?
Binnington is signed through 2026-27 at a $6 million AAV on a deal signed in 2021. In the fifth year of his contract, he holds a 14-team no-trade list, meaning 18 NHL teams remain eligible trade destinations. His base salary for 2025-26 is $6.5 million.
How has Joel Hofer performed for the Blues this season?
Hofer has been excellent, posting a 16-11-4 record with a 2.73 GAA, .904 save percentage, and three shutouts in 36 games. Since the Olympic break, his numbers have been elite — a .948 save percentage and +11.17 GSAx, winning five of his last six starts while giving up two or fewer goals in each victory.
Where could Jordan Binnington be traded?
The Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, and Philadelphia Flyers have shown the most interest, per multiple reports. The Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights have also been connected to Binnington. His 14-team no-trade list limits options, but 18 clubs remain eligible as potential landing spots.
