Nick Jensen's Season Is Over — And Ottawa's Defense Might Be Better For It

I'm going to say something that sounds cold: the Senators losing Nick Jensen to knee surgery might be the best thing that's happened to their blue line all year. Jensen tore his meniscus in Wednesday's game against Montreal, was initially listed as day-to-day, and then Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun dropped the real news Monday — surgery, minimum six weeks, season done. But the numbers? The numbers have been screaming for months that Ottawa's defense has a Jensen problem.

Video: Canadiens 3, Senators 2 — The game where Jensen went down with the knee injury — via NHL.com

Here's What the Numbers Actually Say

Jensen has been on the wrong end of roughly 53% of shot attempts at 5-on-5 this season — a 47.52% Corsi across 844 minutes, per Natural Stat Trick. That's bad. What's worse is his expected goals-for share sitting under 50%, which means the Senators were expected to get outscored every single shift he was on the ice. And this is a guy making $4.05 million on the last year of his deal.

But the pairings were the real disaster. I went back and looked at every two-defenseman combination in the NHL this season — all 404 of them that logged 50-plus minutes together. The Sanderson-Jensen pairing allowed more goals against per 60 minutes than any of them. Not bottom-five. Not bottom-ten. Dead last. Kleven and Jensen ranked eighth-worst. The kind of minutes where you eat blocked shots and dump pucks, not quarterback power plays — and Jensen still couldn't keep his head above water.

Here's What the Numbers Don't Tell You

Jensen was actually starting to figure it out. Over his last 11 games before the meniscus tore, his shot share climbed above 52% and his expected goals-for spiked to 61%, per Evolving Hockey. That's a massive swing — the kind of late-season turnaround that makes you think maybe the hip surgery from May 2025 was affecting him way more than anyone let on (which, watching his first 50 games back, it almost certainly was).

He was settling into a reduced third-pair role. Twenty minutes a night was too much for 35-year-old Jensen coming off hip surgery. Twelve to fourteen? He looked like a different player. And then his knee gave out.

The Kleven-Spence Pairing Is the Real Story Here

Imagine telling a Senators fan in October that the team's best defensive pairing would be Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence. They'd have laughed. Kleven was the raw, physical project defenseman who couldn't crack the top four. Spence was the undersized acquisition from LA who nobody outside of Kings fans had heard of. But here we are.

Among 88 NHL defensive pairings with 300-plus minutes of 5v5 ice time, Kleven and Spence own the best expected goals-for share in the entire league at 62.06%. Best in the NHL. Not Makar and Toews. Not Heiskanen and Harley. Kleven and Spence. When they've had elevated minutes with Jensen out, the numbers got even sillier — 57.48% Corsi, 55.38% shots-for share, and 55.98% expected goals-for, per Evolving Hockey.

Why does it work? Kleven is 6-foot-4, 221 pounds, and he plays like he's angry at the puck. He finishes every check, clears the crease like it's personal, and he's developed enough poise with the puck that he's not a liability in transition anymore. Spence is the exact opposite — quick feet, excellent gap control, reads the play two passes ahead. One guy punishes you physically, the other one never lets you get set up in the first place. It's the kind of complementary pairing coaches dream about, and Ottawa stumbled into it because injuries forced their hand.

The frustrating part? This pairing has been buried on the third pair all season because Jensen's $4.05 million salary and veteran status kept him in the lineup. Travis Green was stuck playing a guy who was dragging down every partner he touched instead of giving these two more rope. These two weren't supposed to be the story of the season. They might be anyway.

Sanderson's Return Changes Everything

Now let's talk about the part nobody wants to hear — the part where losing Jensen barely registers because of who's coming back.

Jake Sanderson is expected to return to the ice next week, likely for the March 23 road game against the Rangers or the massive March 24 date in Detroit. Ottawa's actual top-pair guy — the former fifth overall pick with 11 goals and 37 assists this season — has been out since March 8 when Seattle's Brandon Montour drove him into the boards. Garrioch reported the Sanderson timeline alongside the Jensen surgery news, and I don't think that's a coincidence.

Sanderson's advanced numbers before the injury were elite — a 59% expected goals-for share and a 56% Corsi, per PuckPedia, both well above the team average. His relative numbers show Ottawa controlled roughly 5% more of expected goals with him on the ice versus off it. That's a massive gap. When Sanderson plays, Ottawa looks like a playoff team. When he doesn't, they look like the team that missed the playoffs the last seven years.

Here's how the defense pairs should look when Sanderson returns:

PairLDRD5v5 xGF%Role
1stThomas ChabotArtem Zub~52%Top pair, heavy minutes
2ndJake SandersonNikolas Matinpalo~55%Two-way pair, PP2
3rdTyler KlevenJordan Spence62.06%Sheltered but dominant
7th DLassi Thomson—Spot duty / insurance

Ottawa also recalled Lassi Thomson from AHL Belleville as that seventh D. Thomson's got 14 goals in 55 AHL games — most among all AHL defensemen this season — so this isn't some warm body call-up. The Senators grabbed Samuel Bolduc and Ryan O'Rourke at the AHL trade deadline specifically to build organizational depth. Travis Green has options now.

The Playoff Math: 16 Games to Make Seven Years of Waiting Worth It

Here's this week's schedule first, because context matters: Washington tonight (Tuesday), Islanders Wednesday, Maple Leafs Friday. Then they go on the road — Rangers, Red Wings, Penguins, Lightning, Panthers. Seven of their next ten are against Eastern Conference playoff teams. This isn't a soft landing.

Ottawa sits at 77 points with 16 games left. Boston holds the second wild card at 80, Detroit's right there at 79, and Columbus is at 79 as well. The Senators need roughly 18 more points to feel safe — that's a 9-5-2 or 8-4-4 record the rest of the way. Not impossible, but not exactly comfortable either.

MoneyPuck's model currently gives Ottawa around a 45% chance of making the playoffs, up from 40% before the Olympic break. That tracks with what we're seeing — the Senators have gone 6-1-2 since the break with just one regulation loss, and they're trending in the right direction. But that Detroit game on March 24? That's a four-point swing in the standings. I'd argue that single game matters more than the Jensen surgery.

The Senators haven't made the playoffs since 2017. Seven years. An entire generation of fans who've never seen this team in the postseason. The next 16 games either validate the rebuild or extend the drought to eight. And — here's the part I keep coming back to — Ottawa's blue line, right now, is better than it was in November. Full stop.

Jensen's Contract and Cap Implications

Jensen's $4.05 million cap hit expires this summer regardless of the surgery. He's a UFA on July 1, and there's zero chance the Senators bring him back — he turns 36 in September with two surgeries in ten months. That money comes off the books automatically.

What does $4.05 million buy you in a 2026 free agent market with the cap projected at $104 million? A legitimate middle-pair defenseman, potentially. Darren Raddysh is trending toward a point-per-game season in Tampa and will be a UFA. Younger right-shot options like Braden Schneider (24, Rangers UFA) and Nils Lundkvist (25) will be available too. GM Steve Staios has already said defense is Ottawa's top offseason priority, and Jensen's money gives him a meaningful chip to play with.

As for LTIR implications right now — Jensen's injury doesn't create significant cap relief for the playoff push. The Senators aren't pressed against the ceiling, and the savings amount to a few hundred thousand in prorated cap space. It's enough to carry Thomson as the extra body, but don't expect Steve Staios to go shopping.

The Chychrun Trade Keeps Getting Worse

I hate to keep beating this drum, but someone has to. Jensen came to Ottawa in July 2024 as part of the Jakob Chychrun trade from Washington — Jensen and a 2026 third-round pick for Chychrun. At the time, the logic was that Jensen provided a veteran presence and Chychrun was an asset the Senators couldn't fit under their cap structure. That logic aged like milk.

Chychrun has 21 goals this season. Twenty-one. Per ESPN, he's got 46 points in 57 games with a plus-23 rating and 80 blocked shots. He led all NHL defensemen in goals earlier this season and just signed a $72 million extension with the Capitals — eight years at $9 million per. Meanwhile, Jensen gave Ottawa a 47.52% Corsi, two surgeries, and a wave goodbye. The Senators traded a legitimate number-one defenseman for a guy who couldn't crack any pairing's top-half metrics. That's the whole ballgame on this trade — it was a disaster, and Jensen's knee just wrote the final chapter.

Frequently Asked Questions

How long is Nick Jensen out after knee surgery?

Six weeks minimum, per Garrioch's March 17 report. The regular season ends April 16, so his year is done. This is his second surgery in ten months — he had hip surgery last May — which probably explains a lot about his rough start.

Will the Senators re-sign Nick Jensen?

I don't see any scenario where that happens. He turns 36 in September, the $4.05 million walks automatically, and two surgeries in ten months is the kind of medical history that makes front offices run the other direction. Staios has already identified defense as the top offseason priority, and that money goes toward someone younger and healthier. Jensen's time as a Senator ended the moment his knee buckled in that Montreal game — the surgery just made it official.

Who replaces Jensen on Ottawa's blue line?

Thomson gets the immediate roster spot. But the bigger move is Sanderson coming back next week, which reshuffles the entire D corps into more natural roles and finally lets Kleven-Spence stay intact. That pair's 62.06% expected goals-for share is the best mark of any defensive pairing in the league. Ottawa might actually be deeper without Jensen — it just took the injury to force the configuration.

How does losing Jensen affect Ottawa's penalty kill?

Short answer: not as much as you'd think. Jensen ranked third among Senators defensemen in shorthanded ice time, but his xGA/60 on the PK was 9.44 — that's 135th out of 157 NHL defensemen, per Natural Stat Trick. Chabot and Zub will absorb the bulk of those minutes, and Thomson has PK experience from Belleville. Ottawa's penalty kill has hovered around league average all season regardless of who's been out there, so this isn't the area that keeps me up at night.

What are Ottawa's realistic playoff odds without Jensen?

Here's an interesting wrinkle — Ottawa's playoff odds might actually go up without Jensen, not down. MoneyPuck had the Senators at roughly 45% before the surgery news. With Sanderson returning next week and the Kleven-Spence pair staying together, the defensive structure is objectively better than it was a month ago. The Senators need about 18 points from 16 games (a 9-5-2 pace) to clinch. They've been playing at a .778 points percentage since the Olympic break. I'm not 100% sure the math works out — that Detroit game on March 24 and the Florida back-to-back in late March are brutal — but this team has more momentum than their record suggests. Similar to how the Oilers are navigating the Draisaitl shutdown, sometimes losing a player forces a team to find a better version of itself.

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