The 2026 trade deadline came and went, and Jonathan Marchessault was still a Nashville Predator. That silence told you everything. A Conn Smythe Trophy winner three years removed from being the most dominant playoff performer alive — and not a single team was willing to pay the price to acquire him. Nashville's next general manager, whoever that ends up being, inherits a $5.5 million contract for a 35-year-old winger producing at a fourth-liner's pace, protected by a no-movement clause that gives the player all the leverage. Welcome to the Conn Smythe Discount: the widest gap between what a player's reputation says he's worth and what the trade market will actually pay.
Marchessault has 11 goals and 28 points in 55 games this season. He's a minus-16. His shooting percentage has cratered to 9.6 percent — well below his career 11.4 percent average. And he still has three years left on a deal that pays him $5.5 million annually through 2028-29. The offseason is Nashville's last real window to move him before the contract becomes truly unmovable. Here are the three destinations that could work — and why each one carries serious risk.
Key Takeaways
- Deadline failure: Marchessault wasn't traded despite Nashville being in full sell mode — his NMC, salary, and declining production suppressed the market
- Career-worst production: 11 goals in 55 games at age 35 with a 9.6% shooting percentage, down from his career 11.4% average
- Contract burden: Three years remaining at $5.5M AAV with a no-movement clause and 15-team no-trade list — Nashville likely needs to retain salary
- Montreal frontrunner: Marchessault is from Cap-Rouge, Quebec, and Frank Seravalli reports he'd "love to go home" — but the Canadiens' rebuild timeline doesn't fit a 35-year-old
- GM search complicates everything: Barry Trotz is retiring, Nashville's new GM may want to assess Marchessault before dumping him at a discount
From Undrafted to Folk Hero: The Career That Built the Discount
Jonathan Marchessault's career path is one of the best stories in modern hockey, and it's also the reason his current situation is so painful. Born December 27, 1990, in Cap-Rouge, Quebec, he went undrafted — dismissed as undersized at 5-foot-9. He signed with the Connecticut Whale, the Rangers' AHL affiliate, in 2011. Bounced through Columbus and Tampa Bay's systems. Nobody wanted him for more than a cup of coffee.
Then Florida gave him a real shot. In 2016-17, Marchessault scored 30 goals and 51 points as the Panthers' leading scorer — the first Florida player to hit 30 since David Booth in 2009. The Panthers' reward for developing him? They left him unprotected in the 2017 expansion draft. Vegas took him. It was the best personnel decision in Golden Knights history.
Marchessault became the franchise. He's Vegas's all-time leader in points (417), goals (192), and power-play goals (42). He anchored the top line with William Karlsson and Reilly Smith during the magical inaugural season. And in 2023, he completed the fairy tale: 13 goals in the playoffs, the Conn Smythe Trophy, and the Stanley Cup. He was the first undrafted player to win the Conn Smythe since Wayne Gretzky in 1988. I don't care what his stat line says now — that's a Hall of Very Good career by any measure.
"I think in a perfect world, he would love to go to the Montreal Canadiens and go home."
— Frank Seravalli, The Fourth Period (via The Fourth Period)But fairy tales have expiration dates. Vegas let him walk in free agency in July 2024. GM Kelly McCrimmon offered three years; Marchessault wanted five. McCrimmon didn't budge. Marchessault later revealed the Knights didn't contact him for the entire month of May. Within minutes of free agency opening, he signed a five-year, $27.5 million deal with Nashville. The Predators got the name. Vegas got the math right.
The Numbers Behind the Conn Smythe Discount
Here's where reputation crashes into reality. Marchessault's decline isn't subtle — it's a cliff.
| Season | GP | G | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 (VGK) | 76 | 28 | 57 |
| 2023-24 (VGK) | 82 | 42 | 69 |
| 2024-25 (NSH) | 80 | 17 | 42 |
| 2025-26 (NSH) | 55 | 11 | 28 |
From 42 goals in his final Vegas season to 11 in 55 games this year. That's not a slump — that's a 74 percent drop in goal scoring over two seasons. His shooting percentage has fallen from a career-high 18.8 percent in 2023-24 to 9.6 percent this season, which sits below his career average of 11.4 percent. The shot volume is down too: he's averaging 16:38 of ice time, the lowest of his career as a full-time NHLer.
I'd argue the shooting percentage decline is the most telling number. A 9.6 percent rate isn't disastrously below his career norm, which means some regression to the mean is possible — but at 35, the more likely explanation is that his release has lost a half-step of quickness, and NHL goalies are catching shots they used to miss. That's not fixable with a change of scenery. That's age.
The historical precedent here is grim. Conn Smythe winners who signed big contracts on the wrong side of 30 almost universally declined faster than their deals anticipated. Brad Richards won the Conn Smythe in 2004 with Tampa Bay at 24 and still ended up bought out by the Rangers a decade later when the term outlasted the production. Marchessault signed his deal at 33, three years older than Richards was. The math was always going to be brutal.
Three Offseason Destinations That Could Work
Nashville's new GM — the search is being led by CAA with a goal of hiring before the June draft — will inherit Marchessault's contract as their first major roster decision. Toronto's GM search gets the headlines, but Nashville's is arguably more consequential because of the number of bad contracts on the books. Moving Marchessault requires three things: he waives his NMC, the destination isn't on his 15-team no-trade list, and Nashville almost certainly retains salary. That last part is the hardest — reports before the deadline indicated the Predators were reluctant to retain.
If Nashville's new GM accepts the Conn Smythe Discount and eats some salary, here are the three destinations that make structural sense.
1. Montreal Canadiens — The Hometown Narrative
This is the destination Marchessault wants, and everyone in the hockey world knows it. He grew up in Cap-Rouge. He played junior for the Quebec Remparts. The Canadiens offered him a three-year deal before he chose Nashville's five-year term in 2024. Seravalli has been reporting the Montreal connection for months.
The fit has real appeal beyond the narrative. Montreal's young core — Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovsky — needs veteran playoff experience in the room. Marchessault has a Cup ring and a Conn Smythe. That matters in a dressing room full of players who've never won a playoff round.
The problem is cap math. Montreal has approximately $6.1 million in projected space. Marchessault's $5.5 million cap hit eats almost all of it — unless Nashville retains 50 percent, dropping the hit to $2.75 million. The projected return for Nashville: a second-round pick and a mid-tier prospect. Maybe a conditional sweetener if Marchessault hits a games-played threshold.
My concern with this one: Habs fans already pushed back hard when the rumors surfaced. Adding a declining 35-year-old winger contradicts the rebuild timeline Kent Hughes has been executing. This trade only happens if Hughes decides the intangibles outweigh the on-ice decline — and that's a bet I wouldn't make.
2. Vegas Golden Knights — The Homecoming
The emotional pull is undeniable. Marchessault is the greatest player in Golden Knights history. He won the Conn Smythe in their building. The franchise record book has his name at the top of every offensive category. A reunion would generate the kind of storyline that sells tickets and energizes a fanbase.
But Kelly McCrimmon already did the math once and decided Marchessault wasn't worth the term. The Golden Knights committed to Noah Hanifin ($7.35M AAV) and Tomas Hertl ($8.1M AAV) instead. Their cap structure doesn't have room for $5.5 million in nostalgia, and even with 50 percent retention from Nashville, a $2.75 million Marchessault is a luxury Vegas doesn't need. He'd be a bottom-six player at best — a role that doesn't justify the cap gymnastics or the trade cost.
I'd bet against this one. McCrimmon is a math guy, not a narrative guy. He proved that when he let Marchessault walk without a phone call in May 2024.
3. Ottawa Senators — The Stealth Fit
Ottawa has been mentioned consistently as a Marchessault destination, and the logic is sound. The Senators have more cap flexibility than Montreal or Vegas. They need veteran scoring depth for a team that's trying to push into the playoff conversation in the East. And Ottawa's dressing room could use a player who's won a Cup, a Conn Smythe, and has survived being discarded by three organizations without losing his edge.
The return would look similar to Montreal: a second-round pick, possibly with Nashville retaining a portion of salary. Ottawa's advantage is that they can absorb more of the cap hit without retention, which gives Nashville a cleaner deal and potentially a slightly better pick.
The risk: Marchessault's 15-team no-trade list is unpublished. If Ottawa is on it, the conversation ends before it starts. And even if it's not, does Marchessault — a Quebec native who wants to play in Montreal — choose Ottawa as his consolation prize? The NMC gives him the power to say no.
Why Minnesota Doesn't Work
Bill Guerin has been linked to scoring forwards all season, and the Wild could theoretically use a veteran winger. But Minnesota has their own cap problems, and Marchessault's 15-team list almost certainly includes several Central Division teams. The Wild would need Nashville to retain salary, and the geographic convenience doesn't outweigh the structural obstacles. This one reads better on paper than it plays in practice.
"There is a willingness from both the Predators and winger Jonathan Marchessault to see if something could happen on the trade front."
— Elliotte Friedman, 32 Thoughts (via Sportsnet)What Nashville's New GM Inherits
Barry Trotz announced his retirement on February 2. The Predators have hired CAA to lead the GM search, with a target of naming a successor before the June draft. The new GM walks into a roster with $8.81 million in dead cap — the highest in the NHL — and a core that includes Marchessault's declining contract, Brady Skjei's $7 million deal with a minus-24 from last season, and Juuse Saros's $7.74 million extension kicking in next year.
The salary cap rising to $113.5 million by 2027-28 provides some relief, but Nashville's problem isn't the ceiling — it's the floor. They have too many long-term commitments to players who aren't performing at their contract level. Marchessault is the most movable of those contracts because there's at least a narrative market for him. Skjei and Saros don't have Conn Smythe trophies to sell.
Here's what bothers me about the whole situation: Nashville reportedly wasn't willing to retain salary at the deadline. If that posture carries into the offseason, they're stuck. No team is taking Marchessault at $5.5 million for three years when he's producing like a $2 million player. The Conn Smythe Discount only works if Nashville accepts it — and acceptance means eating $1.5 to $2.75 million annually for three years. That's the cost of signing a 33-year-old to a five-year deal. Trotz made the bet. His successor pays the tab.
Sources and Reporting
- PuckPedia — Contract details, cap hit, NMC/NTL verification
- The Fourth Period (Seravalli/Pagnotta) — Trade destination reporting, Montreal connection
- Sportsnet (Friedman) — Willingness from both sides to explore a trade
- PredLines — Trade hurdles analysis, salary retention reporting
- NHL.com — Trotz retirement announcement, GM search timeline
- Las Vegas Review-Journal — McCrimmon's contract negotiations, free agency exit
My projection: Marchessault gets moved to Montreal between the draft and July 1, with Nashville retaining 40-50 percent of his salary. The return is a 2027 second-round pick and a B-level prospect — nothing close to what a Conn Smythe winner should command. Nashville's new GM will frame it as clearing the deck for Filip Forsberg and Juuse Saros. Montreal will frame it as adding a veteran winner for a team learning how to compete. Both sides will be partially right. But the Conn Smythe Discount is real, and it's going to cost Nashville more than the trade return suggests — because the salary they retain is the invisible line item that makes the whole deal possible. That's the price of signing a 33-year-old to a five-year deal based on one legendary playoff run. The legend doesn't depreciate. The legs do.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why wasn't Jonathan Marchessault traded at the 2026 deadline?
His no-movement clause gave him veto power, his 15-team no-trade list limited destinations, and Nashville was reportedly unwilling to retain salary. At $5.5M AAV with declining production, no team could justify the price without significant cap relief from the Predators. Both sides wanted a deal — the math just didn't work in-season.
What is Jonathan Marchessault's contract?
Five years, $27.5 million ($5.5M AAV) signed July 1, 2024 with Nashville. Three years remain after this season through 2028-29. He has a full no-movement clause and a 15-team no-trade list. His 2025-26 base salary is $6.85 million. Vegas offered only three years — McCrimmon wouldn't go to four.
What could Nashville get in a Marchessault trade?
Realistically, a second-round pick and a mid-tier prospect — but only if the Predators retain 40-50 percent of his salary. Without retention, the return drops to a late-round pick or less. His production this season (11 goals in 55 games) and three years of remaining term suppress the market significantly.
Would Montreal actually trade for Jonathan Marchessault?
It's complicated. Marchessault wants to play in Montreal — he's from Cap-Rouge, Quebec and the Habs offered him a deal in 2024. But adding a declining 35-year-old at $5.5M contradicts Kent Hughes' rebuild timeline. The deal only works with heavy salary retention from Nashville, likely 50 percent. Fans are already opposed.
How did Jonathan Marchessault win the Conn Smythe Trophy?
He scored 13 goals in the 2023 playoffs — tying Leon Draisaitl for the postseason lead — as Vegas won the Stanley Cup. He became the first undrafted player to win the Conn Smythe since Wayne Gretzky in 1988 and set a Golden Knights record with a 10-game playoff point streak. He's Vegas's all-time leading scorer with 417 career points.
