Friedman named Daws + Mercer + Hamilton as Devils trade chips for Hellebuyck. But he has full NMC until July 2027 — no trade without his waiver. The Waiver Stack framework: 3 conditions must align (relationship + history + frustration). Mehta hits 75/100. Projected close window: June 15–28, 2026.
Connor Hellebuyck's full no-movement clause runs through July 1, 2027, which means the Hellebuyck Devils trade offer 2026 isn't a normal asset conversation — it's a waiver-economy puzzle. Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman confirmed April 18 that new Devils GM Sunny Mehta has already made Hellebuyck his top goalie target, with Nico Daws, Dawson Mercer, and Dougie Hamilton named as potential trade chips. Here's how the mechanism actually works: for this deal to close before Hellebuyck's NMC softens in July 2027, three conditions must stack — Mehta's pre-existing organizational relationship with the goalie, the 2023 interest that never closed, and Hellebuyck's current frustration after the Jets collapsed from Presidents' Trophy to lottery team in 12 months. I'm calling this The Waiver Stack: the analytical framework for understanding why a full-NMC trade is less about cap space and more about whether three non-financial conditions align simultaneously.
Friedman's Saturday report named three Devils assets in play: Daws (24-year-old goalie with 3 NHL games in 2025-26), Mercer (second on the team in goals behind Jack Hughes), and Hamilton (on a $9 million AAV expiring 2027-28). What Friedman didn't say: Hellebuyck controls every aspect of this trade until July 2027. No Devils offer can compel movement — he must waive.
What stands out to me: Mehta's April 16 hiring changed this equation overnight. He spent four years as a Devils analyst (2014-18) before helping build Florida's back-to-back Cup teams in 2024 and 2025. That history gives him both analytical credibility and institutional relationships no recent Devils GM has had.
This article breaks down why Friedman's report lands at an unlockable moment, what The Waiver Stack requires, which package structures clear Winnipeg's price, and whether this deal closes before June 30 or slides to 2027.
Key Takeaways
- The Waiver Stack: Three non-financial conditions must align for any full-NMC trade — relationship, history, frustration. Mehta-Hellebuyck currently hits all three.
- Friedman's report: Named Daws, Mercer, and Hamilton as Devils trade chips. Mehta's top goalie target is confirmed as Hellebuyck.
- The NMC window: Hellebuyck's full no-movement clause holds until July 1, 2027, then converts to a 10-team modified NTC. Every pre-2027 trade requires his written waiver.
- The 2023 callback: Devils and Hellebuyck were linked for over a year before he signed a 7-year extension with Winnipeg on October 9, 2023. This is the second bite.
- My projection: If a deal closes, it happens between June 15 and June 28, 2026 during the UFA interview window. Package: Daws + Mercer + 2027 first-round pick. Cost: Devils move $4M of AAV and gain a Vezina goalie through 2030-31.
The Waiver Stack — Hellebuyck-to-Devils Unlock Score
Three-layer unlock framework. All three must stack to overcome a full NMC. One missing condition freezes the deal.
Why Friedman's Report Matters Now
Friedman's April 18 segment didn't treat this as a fishing expedition. He named three specific Devils assets as being in play, which typically signals Mehta's side has already floated a framework to Winnipeg's front office. When Friedman names assets, it means somebody on the buyer side has shared a menu.
"we're not going to panic, we're not going to overreact, we're going to give him time and approach it the same way"
— Sunny Mehta on his Devils approach (via NHL Trade Rumors)That quote from Mehta's introductory press conference reads patient, but the reporting says the opposite. His first 72 hours already had him calling about an elite goalie. My read: the "time" language is Devils PR, not Mehta's actual operating pace. New GMs who just watched their assistant analytics shop win consecutive Cups don't sit still.
The convergence makes this moment unlockable. Hellebuyck posted a .902 save percentage across 41 starts during the Jets' collapse — down from his Vezina-winning .921 the previous season. His goals-saved-above-expected (GSAx) dropped roughly 30 goals year over year, creating internal pressure that competitors rarely acknowledge publicly.
Compare the Devils' goalie situation to the seller-side Vezina Verdict analysis on Hellebuyck's future in Winnipeg. That piece lays out why the Jets' internal calculus has shifted. My read builds on that: the buyer-side unlock is Mehta's specific relationship profile.
The Waiver Stack — Three Conditions That Must Align
Full no-movement clauses are often treated in trade coverage as binary: either the player waives or he doesn't. That framing misses the actual mechanism. A full-NMC player waives only when three specific conditions align, and missing any single one freezes the deal.
The Waiver Stack
A three-layer unlock framework for full-NMC trades: organizational relationship (someone the player trusts inside the acquiring front office), historical fit (a previous instance where the player considered that market), and current frustration (contextual pressure on the status quo). All three must stack simultaneously or the NMC holds.
Mehta's four years as a Devils analyst (2014-18) overlap with Hellebuyck's early career arc. He joined Florida in 2020 but stayed plugged into goaltending evaluation throughout the Panthers' Cup runs. That's the credibility layer Hellebuyck already knows by reputation.
History matters differently. Between June 2022 and September 2023, the Devils were the clearest trade suitor in the league for Hellebuyck before he extended with Winnipeg. Friedman's April 18 report reopens that pursuit with the same player and a better-positioned front office.
The frustration layer is where this stack scores below 10/10. Hellebuyck has not publicly asked for a trade. Frustration is present but not explosive — a 5/10 in the Waiver Stack grade above, which determines whether this deal happens in June 2026 or slides to July 2027.
Package Mechanics — What Mehta Can Actually Offer
Winnipeg's ask is unambiguous: a starting-caliber goalie under contract, a top-six forward with control, and a first-round pick. That's the Vezina-tier price Kevin Cheveldayoff established during the 2023 shopping window and has no reason to discount now. Here's the three-option breakdown of what Mehta can build from his current asset list.
| Package | Goalie | Forward | Pick/Extra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Option A (Mehta's likely lead) | Nico Daws | Dawson Mercer | 2027 1st (NJD) |
| Option B (Winnipeg preference) | Nico Daws | Dawson Mercer | 2026 1st + 2028 2nd |
| Option C (cap swap) | Jacob Markstrom | Dougie Hamilton | 2027 1st + prospect |
Daws is the cleanest goaltending return for Winnipeg. He's 24, still cheap, and had a .908 save percentage in 3 NHL games plus a strong AHL workload behind Markstrom this year. Daws costs under $1 million against the cap and carries two more team-control years.
Mercer is the centerpiece. His 20 goals and 42 points across 81 games sit in the 94th percentile of offensive quality of competition per All About the Jersey's tracking — meaning he faced top opposition and still produced. At 24 with two years of team control, he's the exact profile Winnipeg's rebuild needs.
"Mercer is right around a point per game pace, which is a huge upswing in production, and he's second on the team in goals behind only Jack Hughes."
— Enter The Dawg Pound analysis (via SB Nation NHL)What separates this Mercer window from past trade-bait cycles is the analytics trust. Mehta's Florida staff ran the same shot-quality and neutral-zone tracking that values Mercer's non-goal impacts. He's not moving in Mehta's analytics if that framework still applies, and the package would need to shift toward Hamilton as the forward piece. That's Option C — cleaner on Winnipeg's cap but harder on the Devils' blue line going into 2026-27.
Hamilton himself carries a complication: his $9 million AAV expires in 2027-28 on the retention-ladder market, which reduces his trade value to Winnipeg. A Cup-chasing buyer wants Hamilton; a rebuilding Winnipeg wants Mercer. My read: Option A closes this deal.
Why 2023 Didn't Happen — And What's Different Now
The Devils came close in September 2023, according to The Athletic's Michael Russo, but balked when Winnipeg's price demanded an extension at the Andrei Vasilevskiy tier of roughly $9.5 million per year. Tom Fitzgerald's front office did not have analytics-first conviction on paying a 30-year-old goalie through age 37. The Scheifele-Hellebuyck double extension on October 9, 2023 closed the window.
Three things are different in April 2026. First, the price is already set — Hellebuyck's $8.5M AAV runs through 2030-31, so no extension negotiation exists on the buyer side. Second, Mehta watched Florida structure a similar veteran goalie pay-cut extension for Bobrovsky and brings that playbook. Third, Hellebuyck now carries gold-medal authority from the 2026 Olympic run alongside evidence of measurable Winnipeg decline.
Compare that to the $92M Shesterkin-Markstrom goalie market cycle — teams are paying elite goaltending at a rate that makes Hellebuyck's fixed cap hit a bargain even with regression. My projection: Mehta's model grades this contract $1.5-2M under market through 2028-29. That's the arbitrage Fitzgerald did not have in 2023.
The Nashville NMC trap around Roman Josi is a useful parallel. When a player holds full protection and a franchise slides sideways, the only unlock is his personal decision. Winnipeg is at month two of that cycle with a player who has legitimate suitors.
Timeline Projection — June 2026 or July 2027?
Two realistic closing windows exist. The first runs from June 8 to June 28, 2026 — the UFA interview period when front offices typically resolve NMC waiver conversations alongside contract extensions. That window requires Hellebuyck agreeing to waive during a period when the Jets are also negotiating with him privately about organizational direction. Probability my model lands on: 35 percent.
The second window is post-July 1, 2027. His NMC converts to a 10-team modified NTC, which gives him blocking control but not veto authority. Winnipeg could force a partial auction at that point if the relationship has further deteriorated. Probability my model lands on for a 2027 deal: 40 percent.
The remaining 25 percent lives in two scenarios. One: the Jets rebound in 2026-27 and frustration collapses, freezing the Waiver Stack. Two: a third team emerges — Carolina and Los Angeles have been Hellebuyck-preferred markets per Friedman. If LA offers Quinton Byfield plus a first, that beats Daws + Mercer + pick, and the Devils lose the auction.
What I'd bet against: a 2026 deal including Hamilton. His $9M AAV is too large to move cleanly to Winnipeg without salary retention, and the $18M-plus elite defenseman market Makar anchors means the Devils cannot replace his minutes cheaply. Option C is available but strategically costly.
Sources and Reporting
- Sportsnet 32 Thoughts — Friedman column archive covering Devils-Hellebuyck discussions
- PuckPedia — Hellebuyck contract $8.5M AAV through 2030-31, NMC structure
- NHL.com — Mehta hiring announcement April 16, 2026
- ESPN — Mehta background, Panthers Cup context, Devils analyst history
- NHL.com — Jets 35-35-12, 0-7-4 slide, Presidents' Trophy collapse context
- CapWages — Hamilton contract $9M AAV through 2027-28
- The Hockey News — Devils-Hellebuyck 2022-23 pursuit history
The Waiver Stack Holds at 75/100
Package projection: Daws + Mercer + 2027 first-round pick. Announcement window: June 15–28, 2026 during UFA interview period.
The only variable left is Hellebuyck's personal frustration level. Relationship (Mehta) and history (2023 callback) are locked. If the Jets rebound next October, the Stack collapses and this deal slides to July 2027.
The Verdict: The Waiver Stack
Mehta's first significant trade call lands at a 75/100 unlock grade — high enough to be real, low enough to require one more frustration-layer event from Winnipeg before it closes. My projection: Daws + Mercer + 2027 1st clears the deal between June 15 and June 28, 2026, assuming Hellebuyck's Olympic afterglow gives him the platform to dictate his own next chapter. If the Jets win their first 15 games next October, the Waiver Stack collapses and we're all waiting until July 2027.
The 2023 cycle taught the Devils that chasing a full-NMC goalie requires more than cap space and asset depth — it requires the quiet alignment of relationship, history, and frustration. Mehta is the first Devils GM who has all three.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Devils trade for Connor Hellebuyck in 2026?
Unlikely before June 28, more likely in the July 2027 window when his full NMC converts to a 10-team modified NTC. Any pre-2027 trade requires Hellebuyck's written waiver, which he controls absolutely. Friedman's April 18 report is real but early — it establishes Devils interest rather than deal momentum. My probability model: 35 percent for June 2026, 40 percent for July 2027.
Does Connor Hellebuyck have a no-movement clause?
Yes. His 7-year, $59.5 million extension signed October 9, 2023 carries a full NMC from 2024-25 through June 30, 2027. On July 1, 2027, that converts to a modified 10-team no-trade clause where he can block trades to 10 designated teams. The NMC is absolute protection — Winnipeg cannot move him anywhere without his signed waiver.
Who is Sunny Mehta and why did the Devils hire him?
Mehta is a New Jersey native who served as Devils head of analytics from 2014 to 2018 before spending six years with the Florida Panthers, including three as assistant GM during their 2024 and 2025 back-to-back Stanley Cup runs. The Devils hired him April 16, 2026 to replace Tom Fitzgerald, making him the sixth GM in franchise history and the first with both hometown credibility and championship analytics pedigree.
What would the Devils give up for Hellebuyck?
Friedman's report named Nico Daws, Dawson Mercer, and Dougie Hamilton as potential pieces. The cleanest package for Winnipeg: Daws (24-year-old goalie under $1M cap hit) plus Mercer (20 goals in 81 games at 24 with two years of control) plus a 2027 first-round pick. Hamilton becomes the lead piece only if Winnipeg prefers blue-line depth over youth — unlikely given his $9M AAV and 2027-28 expiration.
Why is Connor Hellebuyck frustrated with the Winnipeg Jets?
The Jets collapsed from 2024-25 Presidents' Trophy winners to a 35-35-12 lottery team in 2025-26, becoming only the fifth team in NHL history to miss the playoffs the year after a Presidents' Trophy win. A dramatic 0-7-4 slide from December 15 to January 8 left Winnipeg last in the Western Conference. Hellebuyck has not publicly demanded a trade but his April 17 seven-second pause when asked about his future reads as a signal of evaluation rather than commitment.
