Predators Not Expected Back: The NMC Trap Explained

The Nashville Predators not expected back list this offseason should be simple: three players, three goodbyes, rebuild. Except the players who need to leave hold the contracts that prevent them from leaving. Marchessault wants out but has $16.5 million remaining. Stamkos refused to waive his NMC at the deadline. Josi's clause runs through next season. This is what I'm calling the NMC Trap — $22.5 million in cap space where the players decide whether they stay or go, and the front office can't execute a rebuild without their permission. Barry Trotz announced in February that he's stepping down as GM after this season — meaning whoever replaces him inherits this mess on day one with zero leverage and zero relationships.

And it's the reason Nashville's rebuild might take two years longer than it should.

Marchessault: The Divorce Both Sides Want But Can't Afford

This one isn't complicated emotionally. Jonathan Marchessault has been trying to get out of Nashville for over a calendar year, per Frank Seravalli. The 2023 Conn Smythe winner signed a 5-year, $27.5 million deal with the Predators in July 2024, and it's been a disaster from day one.

The numbers tell the story. Marchessault has 11 goals and 24 points in 50 games this season — his worst production since the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign. A lower-body injury cost him time, but even when healthy, he's been invisible. His Corsi-For percentage has dropped to 46% this season — meaning Nashville gets outshot when he's on the ice. In Vegas during the 2023 Cup run, that number was above 52%. He hasn't just stopped scoring — he's stopped driving play entirely. At $5.5 million, Nashville is paying top-six money for a player producing fourth-line analytics.

Frank Seravalli: Jonathan Marchessault has been trying to get out of Nashville for more than a calendar year now - Halford & Brough (3/11)

— NHL Rumour Report (@NHLRumourReport) March 11, 2026

Seravalli on Marchessault's trade request — via X (formerly Twitter)

The problem isn't desire — it's math. Marchessault has three years and $16.5 million remaining on his contract. He'll reportedly waive his trade protection, but only for a destination he chooses. And what contender is absorbing $5.5 million per year for a winger producing at a 40-point pace? The new GM almost certainly has to retain salary to move him — 50% retention drops the cap hit to $2.75M, which is palatable, but Nashville eats $8.25M in dead cap over three years for a player who doesn't play for them.

I'd bet Marchessault is traded by draft day. The return will be underwhelming — a second-round pick and a mid-level prospect, maybe — because the front office has zero leverage. The player wants out, the production is down, and the contract is ugly. Good luck getting fair value for that package.

Stamkos: 31 Goals and a "Zero Percent" Chance He Leaves

Steven Stamkos told reporters in February that there was "zero" chance he'd waive his no-movement clause. Then he went out and scored 31 goals in 68 games — his best season since Tampa Bay, and the kind of production that makes a mockery of the "aging veteran" narrative. The advanced stats back up the eye test — Stamkos's shooting percentage is running above 16%, which is elite but also above his career average of 14.5%. Even with natural regression, he'd still be a 25-goal scorer. That's the cruelty of Stamkos's situation: too good to bench, too expensive to keep on a rebuilder, and too protected to move.

The Fan Hockey Show (Feb 25): Elliotte Friedman said things change quick but as of yesterday it seemed unlikely that Ryan O'Reilly and Steven Stamkos were getting moved, but there has been an effort to try trade Jonathan Marchessault. #Smashville #NHL

— NHL Trade Alert (@NHLTradeAlert) February 25, 2026

Friedman on Nashville's deadline approach — Stamkos staying, Marchessault effort ongoing — via X (formerly Twitter)

This is what makes Stamkos the most complicated name on the Predators not expected back list. He's 36 years old, making $8 million through 2027-28 with a full NMC. He has every contractual right to stay. And he's playing well enough that the argument for keeping him isn't delusional — it's backed by data.

But Nashville has 73 points and sits 5th in the Central. The rebuild is coming whether Stamkos wants it or not. And Trotz admitted he turned down "really good offers" for Stamkos at the deadline — offers that could have jumpstarted the teardown he knows is necessary.

The summer conversation will be different. Stamkos will see who Nashville moves, watch the roster get younger around him, and face a choice: spend his age-37 season on a rebuilding team going nowhere, or waive the NMC and chase one more Cup with a contender.

My read: he waives by August. Not because he wants to — the "I love being here" quote was genuine — but because watching a rebuild from the inside at 37 is worse than losing the argument. A contender like Florida or Colorado would pay real assets for a 30-goal scorer on a $8M cap hit if Stamkos opens the door.

The NMC Trap: $22.5M Nashville Can't Control

Here's the part that nobody's putting into a table — and it's why Nashville's rebuild is uniquely stuck compared to every other teardown in recent NHL history.

That's $22.5 million in cap space where the PLAYER decides whether they stay or go. Not the GM. Not the owner. The players hold the cards. In a league where the cap ceiling is $104 million, having 22% of your cap locked behind no-movement clauses on a team that needs to rebuild is organizational paralysis.

Compare this to how other teams handle departures. Edmonton's players leaving are mostly UFAs or players without trade protection. The Oilers can move who they want. Nashville can't move anyone unless the players cooperate — and Stamkos already demonstrated that cooperation isn't guaranteed.

The historical precedent is grim. The Ottawa Senators spent years trying to rebuild around Erik Karlsson's NMC before eventually trading him in September 2018. The process took two years longer than it should have because Karlsson controlled his destination, which suppressed the return. Nashville is staring at the same timeline — except with three players holding clauses instead of one.

Josi: The Captain Who Might Ask to Leave

This is the one that hurts.

Pierre LeBrun reported in The Athletic that Roman Josi wants to understand the franchise's direction — and depending on the answer, he might not want to be part of it. LeBrun described Josi as "as loyal as they come" but added that a trade "has more of a chance of happening than one might imagine."

Josi is 35, making $9.06 million with a full NMC through 2026-27. He's still a top-pairing defenseman — one of the best in franchise history, a Norris Trophy winner whose trade value would rival what Washington got for Carlson, and the captain since 2017. Trading him would be the clearest signal that Nashville is burning it to the ground.

I don't think Josi gets traded this summer. His NMC gives him total control, and unlike Stamkos, he hasn't signaled frustration with the team — just curiosity about the plan. My projection: the new GM sits down with Josi, lays out the 2-3 year rebuild timeline, and Josi decides to stay through 2026-27 as the veteran anchor. If Nashville is still terrible by February 2027, that's when the NMC expires and the real trade conversation happens.

What the Rebuild Actually Looks Like

Strip away the NMC complications and the rebuild framework is clear. Nashville has $40 million in projected cap space for 2026-27. Forsberg ($8.5M) and Saros ($7.74M) are the untouchable core — both signed through 2029-30 with NMCs. Everyone else is a variable.

And here's what makes the NMC Trap even more dangerous: Trotz won't be the one navigating it. His successor — expected to be named by the June draft, with a search committee that includes minority owner Nick Saban — walks into $22.5 million in player-controlled contracts without a single established relationship to leverage. Convincing Stamkos to waive is hard enough when you're the GM who signed him. Good luck doing it as the new guy.

The best-case offseason: Marchessault is traded (with retention) for a second-rounder and a prospect. Stamkos waives his NMC and gets dealt to a contender for a first-round pick and a roster player. Haula walks as a UFA. That clears $16.65M in immediate cap relief and brings back draft capital to accelerate the timeline.

The worst case — and the one the NMC Trap makes disturbingly possible — is that Marchessault can't be moved without a buyout, Stamkos refuses to waive again, and Josi stays but checks out mentally. Nashville spends 2026-27 with $22.5M tied up in three veterans on a last-place team, burning years off their rebuild while other rebuilding teams lap them in the draft.

The difference between best case and worst case is 18 months and $11 million in cap flexibility. That's the cost of the NMC Trap — when players control the timeline, the GM's rebuild schedule is a suggestion, not a plan.

The NMC Trap is Nashville's defining offseason problem. Three players controlling $22.5 million in cap space — and every one of them holds the key to a rebuild that can't be executed without their permission. My projection: Marchessault is traded by draft day with 50% retention, Stamkos waives his NMC by August when the rebuild becomes undeniable, and Josi stays through 2026-27 as the last bridge to the old era. Nashville's rebuild starts this summer — but it starts slowly, on the veterans' terms, not the new GM's. That's what the NMC Trap does. Trotz built it, his successor inherits it, and the players control whether the door opens or stays locked. The inmates run the asylum.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why would Nashville trade Stamkos when he scored 31 goals?

Because he's 36, making $8M, and the team has 73 points. Great individual production on a bad team is how you maximize trade value — you sell high, not low. Tampa got a first-rounder and more for older, less productive players at past deadlines. If Stamkos waives this summer, the return should be better than what Trotz turned down in March.

Can Nashville rebuild around Forsberg and Saros?

They can — and will. But Forsberg ($8.5M) and Saros ($7.74M) eat $16.24M. Add Josi ($9.06M) and Stamkos ($8M) if they stay, and that's $33.3M committed to four players on a $104M cap. That leaves $70.7M for 19 roster spots — sounds generous until you realize contenders spend that on quality depth, not veterans circling retirement on a rebuilder.

Could Marchessault bounce back with a different team?

He could — and that's exactly the sales pitch the new GM will make to acquiring teams. But 11 goals in 50 games at $5.5M for three more years is a tough sell. Vegas won the Cup with Marchessault in 2023. Nashville got the version that's three years older and missing a step. A 50% retention trade is the most realistic path, and even then, the return will be modest.

Why doesn't Nashville buy out Marchessault's contract?

Because a buyout on a $5.5M contract with 3 years remaining creates dead cap for 6 years. At his age (35 when bought out), the charge would be roughly $1.83M per year for six seasons. Nashville would be paying Marchessault's ghost through 2032. Retaining salary on a trade and eating 3 years of dead cap is cheaper and faster than 6 years of buyout charges.

Sources and Reporting

• NHL.com — Stamkos "zero chance" quote on NMC waiver
• ClutchPoints — Marchessault trade request reporting (Seravalli source)
• NHL Trade Rumors — LeBrun reporting on Josi's potential trade request
• PuckPedia — Contract details for all Nashville players
• PredLines — Rebuild analysis, cap space projections
• ESPN — Nashville standings (73 pts, 5th Central)
• NHL.com / Predators — Trotz retirement announcement, GM search details
• Bleacher Report — Josi trade landing spots analysis
• ClutchPoints — Trotz "really good offers" quote on Stamkos deadline interest