Zach Werenski Norris Trophy 2026: The Mid-Market Tax

Zach Werenski put up 81 points in 75 games for the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2025-26, outscored the defending Norris winner Cale Makar by roughly a dozen points, averaged 26:37 per night, and will probably finish third in the Zach Werenski Norris Trophy 2026 voting anyway. That's not a scheduling quirk. It's the structural bias of how the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) votes for the league's best defenseman. Werenski is the cleanest statistical case in the finalist group, and he's still facing an uphill fight because his team missed the playoffs and Columbus doesn't produce the highlight-reel clips that move vote totals.

Here's the mechanism. Voting closes at the end of the regular season. Writers who vote for the Norris are based in every NHL market, but the sample of games they actually watch live skews hard toward national broadcasts and playoff-race teams. Makar was on every ESPN and TNT A-package game this year, feeding the national broadcast attention that the Avalanche rode into the Presidents' Trophy conversation. Werenski was on Columbus broadcasts that reach about a quarter of the audience. That matters because voters cast ballots weighted by impressions, not by the REL xGF% column.

My read: Werenski deserves this award. He won't win it. Makar repeats or Quinn Hughes catches the narrative wave, and Columbus's defenseman will finish third on a ballot that his underlying numbers actually topped. That's The Mid-Market Norris Tax, and it's the reason Werenski is the most under-covered finalist of the last five years.

The Columbus Problem: Werenski's Actual James Norris Memorial Trophy Case

Werenski's final line this year reads like a Hart Trophy case, not just a Norris case. Twenty-two goals, 59 assists, 81 points in 75 games. He led all NHL defensemen in even-strength goals. He added four power-play goals to that total. His 26:37 average ice time was second in the NHL only to Quinn Hughes. He played 91% of Columbus's regular-season games and led the team in scoring through most of March.

The counting stats are only part of it. His 1.08 points per game rate and 55.0% expected goals share at 5-on-5 (xGF%), meaning the Blue Jackets generated more scoring chances than opponents when he was on ice, is elite for a defenseman carrying 26-plus minutes. His 54.0% Corsi For (CF%) is the same story on shot attempts. Those are top-10 NHL defenseman numbers, and in Columbus's case they were achieved without a second-pair partner of Devon Toews caliber to absorb defensive-zone starts.

What stands out to me: Werenski's REL xGF% sits at +5.9 percentage points. That means the Blue Jackets are 5.9 percentage points BETTER at generating chance-rate when Werenski is on the ice compared to when he sits. For context, top-tier Norris-level defensemen usually post +3 to +5. Werenski is above that range.

Mid-Market Norris Tax, Defined

The evidence for this tax showing up in 2026 is quantitative, not just anecdotal. NHL.com's Trophy Tracker late in the season had Makar and Werenski tied on first-place votes (7 apiece), but Makar edged the overall voting point total 70 to 69. That narrow margin is the tax in action. Seven voters agreed Werenski was the best defenseman. Nine voters split second place to Makar, and that ordered-preference weighting is where the Avalanche defender's highlight-reel advantage converts to ballot real estate.

Pair that with the specific playoff tax. The 2024-25 Avalanche playoff run gave Makar a national-TV platform through late April. In the same window, Columbus was watching the playoffs from home, same as Buffalo, Montreal for most of the past decade, and Detroit in their rebuild years. None of those franchises's defensemen won a Norris while missing the postseason, and that's not a coincidence.

Head-to-Head: Werenski vs Makar 2025-26

Putting their seasons side-by-side is the cleanest way to see the gap the voters are about to dismiss.

Seven of eight metrics tilt Werenski's way when you weight for individual impact, not team success. The one metric Makar wins decisively is team playoff status, and that's the one most voters will weigh the heaviest. That's the whole ball game.

The Columbus beat's point is structural. Werenski has been a top-5 NHL defenseman for four seasons by the underlying numbers. His Olympic gold medal with Team USA at the 2026 Olympics, where he set up Jack Hughes's overtime winner against Canada, was his introduction to the broader NHL audience for some voters. Three years of missed exposure doesn't get reclaimed in one Olympic tournament.

Historical Precedent: The Erik Karlsson 2015 Parallel

The closest historical echo is Erik Karlsson's 2015 Norris season with the Ottawa Senators. Karlsson put up 66 points, led the league in ice time for defensemen, and won the Norris despite Ottawa missing the playoffs. That's the only modern precedent for a non-playoff defenseman winning the award. It was Karlsson's second Norris, and voters rewarded the underlying impact even without team success.

The difference between Karlsson 2015 and Werenski 2026 is the surrounding cast of candidates. In 2015, the other finalists (Doughty, Voracek's team defenders) were mid-tier Norris cases. In 2026, Makar is the reigning winner coming off a 2024-25 season that was the highest-ranked defenseman season of the advanced-stats era. Werenski has to jump OVER that narrative, not just match it.

That's a higher bar than Karlsson cleared. Makar's individual resume includes a Conn Smythe, a Stanley Cup, two Norris wins, and a 100-point season. The award is comparative, and the comparisons favor the player with the bigger career binder.

Werenski's Contract Situation and What Happens Next

Werenski is two years into a six-year, $57.5 million extension signed in 2022, carrying a $9.583 million AAV through 2027-28. He's 28 years old. When this deal expires, he'll be entering his age-30 UFA year with two Norris finalist appearances on his resume and a cap that will have jumped from $83.5M in the year he signed to $104M in 2026-27 and likely $110M+ by 2027.

A Norris win or runner-up finish in 2026 resets his extension negotiating power. The comparables in his next UFA class are Makar (already extended out of his RFA years) and Quinn Hughes (who will be on a similar timeline, no longer on an ELC). Werenski himself finished his ELC years in 2019 and has outperformed both on raw point totals since 2023-24. If Werenski replicates this season in 2026-27, even at the 2026-27 $104M cap, a legitimate 8-year × $12M AAV extension is the baseline ask, with $13M-14M realistic on a shorter term. The Blue Jackets have to preempt that market and offer between $12M and $13M at six years before December 2027. The parallel extension math appears in the Shesterkin-Markstrom $92M Haymaker breakdown, where a franchise player's Norris-adjacent peer comp pushed the ask into uncharted territory.

Columbus's GM Don Waddell now has a harder problem than hockey people flag. The Makar $11.5M extension mechanics laid out in Colorado are the comp Werenski's camp will cite, and Werenski has outproduced Makar on a 1:1 basis this year. Werenski's actual ask might be higher.

The Second Place Vote: My Projection

I'll call it here: Makar wins the 2026 Norris, Werenski finishes second, Quinn Hughes finishes third. The vote totals land roughly 105 points for Makar, 88 points for Werenski, 42 points for Hughes. Makar gets 10-11 first-place votes, Werenski gets 6-7, Hughes gets 2-3, and scattered ballots go elsewhere. Werenski's second-place finish becomes the resume point he'll carry into the next extension conversation.

What worries me about that projection is the precedent it sets. If the NHL's awards voters keep pricing "team made playoffs" into the Norris ballot at the weight they did this year, we never break the market-bias pattern. The next small-market award contender in the Hellebuyck Vezina mold who posts a 90-point defenseman season (Luke Hughes? Adam Fox in an off-year?) will face the same ceiling. The award is supposed to honor the best defenseman, not the best defenseman on a good team.

Evason's quote reads as expected from a head coach defending his player. But I'll back it up with math: Werenski's 81 points this year plus 82 points in 2024-25 equals 163 points across two seasons. Only three defensemen in the NHL (Makar, Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox) cleared that number across the same two years, and Fox is close enough to argue. Werenski belongs in that top-four by production. The award voting has yet to reflect it.

Connecting this to broader trends, the analytics-orphan dynamic applies to defensemen too. Good numbers on bad teams rarely get the awards attention they deserve.

One more angle the voting ballot typically misses: Werenski's durability across 2024-25 and 2025-26 combined. He played 156 of a possible 164 regular-season games across those two seasons, at an average of 26:34 per night. That's more than 4,100 minutes of elite-level defensive hockey in 24 months, and the Blue Jackets were 33 percentage points better in expected goals share with him on the ice compared to when he was off. No defenseman in the league logged heavier minutes with a wider rel-metric gap in that window.

The ceiling question is whether Werenski can sustain this into age 30-32. Historical comparisons for 80-point American-born defensemen are thin, and the shape of the remaining deal (through 2027-28) covers exactly his peak. What happens in the summer of 2028 is a separate contract conversation, but the 2026 Norris finish is the negotiating anchor whether voters recognize it or not.

Sources and Reporting

• NHL.com Trophy Tracker, late-season voting breakdown with 7-7 first place vote tie
• NHL.com Blue Jackets, finalist announcement and franchise record context
• PuckPedia, Werenski $9.583M AAV contract through 2027-28
• Union and Blue, beat writer context and recognition arc
• NHL.com Trophy Tracker mid-season, Makar vs Werenski head-to-head
• Oilers Nation, Norris Trophy historical context and voting patterns
• Yahoo Sports, full Werenski 2025-26 statistical review
• Wikipedia, career statistics and Olympic gold medal context

The Verdict: The Mid-Market Norris Tax

Werenski won't win the 2026 Norris Trophy, but he'll be the clearest statistical case among the finalists, and that matters more than the trophy itself for where the Blue Jackets franchise and his next contract conversation go from here. The Mid-Market Norris Tax costs him this one. Makar repeats, Hughes finishes third, and Werenski walks away with a runner-up trophy, a $12M+ extension negotiating anchor, and the respect of every analytics-oriented hockey fan who watched him lead all NHL defensemen in even-strength goals. The Columbus beat will have known all year, and by 2028 the rest of the league catches up.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2026 Norris Trophy?

The 2026 Norris Trophy ceremony has not yet taken place as of late April 2026. Finalists are Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets), Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche), and Quinn Hughes (Minnesota Wild). The NHL Awards ceremony is traditionally held in late June after the Stanley Cup Final. Makar enters as the favorite with the most first-place votes in late-season Trophy Tracker polls, but Werenski led several underlying-metric categories.

What are Zach Werenski's 2025-26 stats?

Werenski posted 22 goals, 59 assists, and 81 points in 75 games. He averaged 26:37 of ice time per game (second in the NHL), led all NHL defensemen in even-strength goals, and recorded a 55.0% expected goals share (xGF%) with a +5.9 relative xGF%. He also added four power-play goals and became the third American-born defenseman in NHL history with consecutive 80-point seasons.

How much does Zach Werenski make?

Werenski is under contract for $9.583 million per season through 2027-28 on a six-year, $57.5 million deal signed with Columbus in 2022. His current cap hit is the ninth-highest among NHL defensemen. He becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2028 at age 30, at which point his next contract will be set against a projected $110M+ NHL salary cap.

Has a non-playoff team defenseman ever won the Norris?

Yes, most recently Erik Karlsson in 2014-15 with the Ottawa Senators, who missed the playoffs that season. Karlsson also won the Norris in 2011-12 when Ottawa was a marginal playoff team. Before Karlsson, Ray Bourque won the Norris multiple times on mid-range Boston teams in the late 1980s. The precedent exists but is rare; it has only happened three times in the past 30 years.

What is Werenski's playoff record?

Across four Blue Jackets playoff runs, Werenski has appeared in 25 career NHL playoff games (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020). He has 16 career playoff points (5G, 11A) in those games, with his best performance coming in the 2019 first-round sweep of Tampa Bay where he posted 6 points in 4 games. Columbus has missed the playoffs every season since 2020-21, which spans Werenski's entire prime production window.

How does Werenski compare to Quinn Hughes defensively?

Quinn Hughes leads the NHL in average ice time at 27:44, slightly ahead of Werenski's 26:37. Hughes excels as a puck-carrying transitional defender, while Werenski's profile tilts more toward shooting and goal scoring. Hughes was traded from Vancouver to Minnesota in December 2025 and recorded 44 points in 36 games post-trade, lifting the Wild into a certified Western Conference contender. Hughes is the third 2026 Norris finalist alongside Werenski and Makar.