Panarin's MSG Return Proved the Trade Is Working — The Standings Don't Care
Twelve points in ten games. A standing ovation at Madison Square Garden. An assist in a 4-1 road win that pushed the Kings into a wild card tie. By every emotional and on-ice metric, the Artemi Panarin trade impact has been exactly what Los Angeles hoped for when they pulled the trigger on February 4. Here's the problem: the Kings still sit at 71 points with 15 games left, needing a roughly .700 points percentage the rest of the way just to sniff a playoff spot. Panarin is playing like a star. The math doesn't care.
Monday night at the Garden was the kind of scene that makes you think a trade is working. Panarin got his video tribute during the first TV timeout, took in the ovation, then went out and helped dismantle his former team. Alex Laferriere had a goal and two assists, Drew Doughty opened the scoring, and Darcy Kuemper stopped 21 of 22 shots. The Kings dominated the second period with a 16-3 shot advantage and scored twice in 28 seconds to blow it open. Textbook road win. And it still might not matter.
"They Didn't Want Me" — So He Went Where Someone Did
One sentence tells you everything about where both franchises are right now. Panarin told reporters bluntly: "They didn't want me." No sugarcoating. Chris Drury's January 16 open letter to Rangers fans made the direction clear — "retool," acquire young players and draft picks, move on from expensive veterans. Panarin, 34, in the final year of his deal, was always going to be the first domino.
What the Kings sent back: prospect Liam Greentree, a conditional 2026 third-round pick, and a conditional 2028 fourth-round pick. The Rangers retained 50% of Panarin's $11.6 million salary, putting his cap hit at $5.8 million on LA's books through the end of this season. He immediately signed a two-year, $22 million extension ($11M AAV) beginning in 2026-27.
That's a franchise-level playmaker at a mid-tier cap hit for the stretch run. From where I sit, the Kings won the trade on paper the moment it happened. The question was always whether it would translate to enough wins to matter.
What $5.8 Million Actually Bought the Kings
On the ice, it's been everything LA could've asked for. Through 10 games in a Kings jersey, Panarin has produced at a 1.20 points-per-game rate — three goals and nine assists. For context, that pace across a full season would put him at 98 points. He's not a rental playing out the string. He's been the best forward on the roster since he arrived.
NHL EDGE data tells an even better story. Panarin ranks in the 97th percentile among forwards in average shot speed (63.81 mph) and the 98th percentile in midrange shots on goal. Before the trade, the Kings had the second-fewest midrange shots on goal in the entire NHL — 378, ranking 26th out of 32 teams. Panarin alone has started changing that.
At the team level, LA is scoring nearly half a goal more per game with Panarin in the lineup compared to their pre-trade average, per NHL.com. When you were the second-worst offense in the league before February 4, that kind of jump is seismic.
| Metric | Pre-Trade | With Panarin |
|---|---|---|
| Panarin PPG | 1.10 (NYR) | 1.20 (LAK) |
| Midrange SOG Rank | 26th (NHL) | Improving |
| Shot Speed %ile | — | 97th |
| Team Offense Boost | 2nd-worst in NHL | +0.5 G/GP |
| Cap Hit (this yr) | $11.6M (NYR) | $5.8M (50% retained) |
I don't think there's a deadline acquisition in the Western Conference that's produced more per dollar than Panarin has for the Kings. The problem is that hockey games aren't played on spreadsheets.
The Wild Card Math That Doesn't Care About Standing Ovations
Now for the part that makes all of this feel hollow. The Kings are 28-24-15 after Monday's win — 71 points with 15 games remaining. Historically, Western Conference wild card teams need roughly 92 to 95 points to clinch a berth. Let's be generous and call it 92.
That means LA needs 21 more points in 15 games. Twenty-one out of a possible 30. A .700 points percentage. For a team that's been hovering around .530 all season, that's asking them to suddenly play like a top-five team in the league for a month straight.
Four teams are in a knife fight for that last wild card spot:
- Seattle Kraken: Currently holding the second wild card spot with a slim lead
- Los Angeles Kings: 71 points, now tied after the Rangers win
- San Jose Sharks: Lurking within a point or two
- Nashville Predators: Right there as well — all four teams separated by roughly three points
After all that — trading a top prospect and two picks for an elite winger, signing him to a $22 million extension, watching him produce at a point-per-game rate — Stathletes still gives the Kings an 8.4% playoff probability. Their model says this team misses the playoffs more than 90% of the time. That number should haunt every decision-maker in El Segundo.
And then Adrian Kempe got hurt.
The Kempe Problem Nobody Saw Coming
Kempe was a late scratch Monday with a lower-body injury — his first missed game of the entire 2025-26 season. He went through warmups, looked fine during line rushes, and then couldn't go. The Kings had 65 games of perfect health from their second-leading scorer, and they lost it at the worst possible time.
Before the scratch, Kempe had 26 goals and 57 points in 65 games this season. He's signed to an eight-year, $85 million extension ($10.625M AAV) starting next year — that's how much the organization values him. Without Kempe on Kopitar's wing alongside Panarin, the Kings' top line loses its primary finisher. Panarin creates chances. Kempe buries them. Remove one and the whole equation changes.
No timeline on the injury. Could be one game. Could be a week. When you're sitting at 8.4% playoff odds and every single point matters, even a two-game absence is potentially fatal.
Kopitar's Record, His Retirement, and Why This All Feels Heavier Than It Should
Three days before the Rangers game, Anze Kopitar broke Marcel Dionne's franchise all-time points record with 1,308 career points. Forty-five years that record stood. Kopitar got there in his 1,505th game — a 6-4 loss to the Devils that was bittersweet in every way.
Kopitar's playing his final season. He announced his retirement in September, saying his family "deserves a husband and a dad to be home." Twenty years in Los Angeles. Two Stanley Cups. One of the most decorated Kings in franchise history. And his last request, essentially, was for management to give him one more shot at a deep run.
Acquiring Panarin was that shot. Management went all-in on Kopitar's farewell — acquiring an elite playmaker, burning a top prospect and draft capital, because the alternative was watching their captain's 20th season end with a whimper. For four consecutive years, the Kings lost to the Edmonton Oilers in the first round. Last spring it was six games after LA took a 2-0 series lead. The frustration is real.
What kills me is the timing. Kopitar breaks the all-time record Saturday night. Panarin gets his ovation and an assist on Monday. It should feel like a team building toward something. Instead, you look at the standings and see a coin flip for the final wild card spot. The Panarin trade gave the Kings a better team. Whether it gave them a playoff team — with 15 games to answer the question — remains genuinely unclear.
What the Rangers Got Back — And Whether It'll Matter in Three Years
On the other side, the Rangers are 28-31-8. Last in the Eastern Conference. Drury's "retool" looks a lot like a rebuild whether he wants to call it that or not.
But Liam Greentree is interesting. The 6-foot-3, 216-pound winger has 36 goals and 33 assists (69 points) in 49 OHL games this season for the Windsor Spitfires, earning OHL Player of the Week honors after a 10-goal, 16-point stretch over nine games. He's already signed his entry-level contract. He could see AHL or even NHL time as early as next season if the Spitfires' playoff run ends early.
Is Greentree worth Panarin? Not today. Probably not next year. But in 2028, when Greentree is 22 and potentially a top-six NHL forward, and Panarin is 36 and fading — the calculus might look different. The conditional picks (a 2026 third and a 2028 fourth) are throw-ins. This was always about Greentree.
Deadline trades are impossible to grade fairly in real time. The Kings needed Panarin for March and April 2026, and they're getting exactly what they paid for on the ice. The Rangers needed futures, and Greentree's trajectory suggests they didn't get robbed. Both teams might look at this trade in five years and say it worked. That almost never happens.
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Artemi Panarin performed since the Kings trade?
Panarin has 12 points (3 goals, 9 assists) in 10 games since being acquired from the Rangers on February 4. His 1.20 points-per-game rate with the Kings is actually higher than his 1.10 PPG in New York this season. According to NHL EDGE data, Panarin ranks in the 97th percentile among forwards in shot speed and the 98th percentile in midrange shots on goal — areas where the Kings were among the league's worst before acquiring him. He's signed through 2027-28 on an $11M AAV extension.
What are the LA Kings' current playoff chances?
The Kings have 71 points with 15 games remaining after their 4-1 win over the Rangers on March 16. They're in a tight wild card race with Seattle, San Jose, and Nashville — all separated by roughly three points. Stathletes' model gives them an 8.4% playoff probability. To reach a projected 92-point clinch line, they'd need 21 points in 15 games — a .700 points pace that would be their best stretch of the season by a wide margin. Adrian Kempe's lower-body injury further complicates their push.
What did the Rangers receive for Panarin?
New York received forward prospect Liam Greentree, a conditional 2026 third-round pick, and a conditional 2028 fourth-round pick. The Rangers also retained 50% of Panarin's $11.6 million salary for the remainder of this season. Greentree, a 6-foot-3 winger, has been outstanding since the trade — 36 goals and 69 points in 49 OHL games for the Windsor Spitfires, earning Player of the Week honors. He holds a signed entry-level contract and could reach the NHL as early as 2027-28.
How serious is Adrian Kempe's injury?
Kempe was a late scratch on March 16 against the Rangers with a lower-body injury — his first missed game of the 2025-26 season. He participated in warmups and line rushes before being ruled out, suggesting the injury may have occurred or worsened during pregame. The Kings have provided no timeline. Kempe has 26 goals and 57 points in 65 games this season and carries a $10.625M AAV on his extension beginning next year, underscoring his importance to the organization long-term.
When did Kopitar become the Kings' all-time points leader?
Anze Kopitar surpassed Marcel Dionne's franchise record of 1,307 points on March 14, 2026, during a 6-4 loss to the New Jersey Devils. He scored twice on the power play to reach 1,308 career points, breaking a record that had stood for over 45 years. Kopitar reached the milestone in his 1,505th career game compared to Dionne's 921 — a reflection of remarkable longevity if not raw efficiency. This is Kopitar's 20th and final NHL season; he announced his retirement in September 2025.
