Maple Leafs Pick McKenna #1 in 2026 NHL Mock Draft

Toronto won the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery on May 5 and will pick first overall for just the third time in franchise history. The choice on June 26? It’s already a done deal. Penn State winger Gavin McKenna is the pick, and Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis put it best when he wrote “Oh. My. Gosh. Toronto, you did it.”

The last time the Maple Leafs picked first, the year was 2016 and the player was Auston Matthews. Ten years before that, it was Wendel Clark in 1985. Toronto used to wait four decades between franchise-defining first overall picks. This time, they only waited a decade.

Let me walk you through why McKenna is so obviously the pick, what the historical parallel to Matthews actually means, and how the Leafs roster looks the day this kid walks into training camp.

Related: San Jose at the No. 2 pick faces six locked doors of NMC and NTC defensemen.

What Just Happened on May 5

Toronto entered the lottery with the 5th-best odds. They came out with the #1 overall pick. The ping-pong balls fell in a way Maple Leafs fans haven’t seen since Brendan Shanahan’s rebuild era a decade ago.

Per our lottery breakdown from May 5, Toronto’s win opens a 25 percent window where they could pick either McKenna or Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg. The mock draft consensus is unanimous on McKenna being the choice.

Steven Ellis at Daily Faceoff broke the news with the kind of clarity that comes from years on the prospect beat. “Oh. My. Gosh. Toronto, you did it,” Ellis wrote. “This is the guy who’ll sell jerseys and get fans to love the team again. He’s the most skilled player in the class, and most of the concerns around his game started to disappear after the World Juniors.”

Toronto’s lottery win was a structural correction. The disappointing season subtraction spiral we tracked through April had Leafs fans in mourning. Now the team that lost first-round playoff hockey eight times in a decade gets the consolation prize: a generational prospect.

Why McKenna Is The Obvious Pick

Look at the prospect tape. McKenna isn’t just the consensus #1. He’s the kind of #1 where every scout in the building stops arguing by November. NHL Central Scouting put him atop their final North American skater rankings. Bob McKenzie’s final TSN rankings had him #1. Sam Cosentino at NHL.com had him #1. Every credible mock has McKenna at the top.

What separates him from Stenberg, Verhoeff, and the rest of the class? Per Ellis: “In terms of raw, game-changing skill, nobody has what McKenna has in this class. He still needs to bulk up to truly succeed in the NHL, but an NHL coaching staff will help.”

Translation: McKenna is the closest thing the 2026 class has to a generational offensive talent. The bulk concern is real but solvable through standard NHL strength programs. Toronto has the best player development infrastructure of any Original Six team. The fit is clean.

For the deeper player profile, see our earlier breakdown on McKenna’s NIL Kickoff at Penn State and how the NIL era reshaped his draft year. He’s the first NCAA player projected #1 overall since Jack Eichel went to Buffalo in 2015.

The Echo: Why 2016 Matters Now

Toronto’s last #1 pick was Auston Matthews in 2016. Per Wikipedia’s 2016 NHL Entry Draft page, that selection ended a 10-year drought stretching back to the franchise’s prior first-overall, before that being Wendel Clark in 1985. Three #1 picks across 41 years of franchise history. Now four across 41 plus another 10.

What does the Matthews comparison actually tell us? The day Matthews was drafted, Toronto was a 30-win team coming off the worst season in franchise history. Within five years, Matthews was a Hart Trophy winner. Within nine years, he was the franchise captain on a $13.25M cap hit.

McKenna’s arc projects similarly. He won’t carry the Calder hype Matthews did. The 2026 class isn’t as deep at the top as 2016, where Matthews and Patrik Laine went 1-2 in a draft remembered for both. But the structural setup is similar: McKenna joins a roster that already has Matthews, Marner’s replacement (more on that below), and Knies as the young core.

One key difference. Matthews was drafted into a Toronto rebuild. McKenna is being drafted into a Toronto contention window that’s been narrowly missing since 2018. The current GM search after Brad Treliving’s departure adds organizational uncertainty that didn’t exist in 2016. McKenna walks into a more polished but more fragile franchise structure.

What McKenna’s Penn State Year Tells You

Some numbers actually matter. McKenna posted 51 points (11 goals, 36 assists) in 24 Big Ten conference games during his 2025-26 freshman season. That’s a 2.13 point-per-game pace at the NCAA Division I level as an 18-year-old. The 36 assists set the Penn State single-season record.

The eye-popping moment came February 20 against Ohio State. Eight points in a single game (1 goal, 7 assists). Per Penn State’s official athletics records, that’s the most points scored in an NCAA Division I game in 39 years. Awards followed: Hobey Baker top-10 finalist, Big Ten Freshman of the Year, All-Big Ten Second Team.

Compare that to peer benchmarks. Macklin Celebrini posted 64 points in 38 games at Boston University as the 2024 #1 overall pick (1.68 PPG). Connor Bedard’s WHL draft year was 143 points in 57 games (2.51 PPG, but in a much weaker league). McKenna’s 2.13 PPG in NCAA D-I is closer to Bedard than Celebrini in raw scoring rate, with stronger competition than the WHL.

His advanced numbers reinforce the projection. Per College Hockey Inc. tracking, McKenna averaged a 65 percent zone-entry success rate with controlled possession. That’s elite at any level.

How McKenna Slots Into Toronto’s Forward Chart

Here’s where the analysis gets fun. Toronto’s 2026-27 forward depth chart has Matthews at 1C, Knies at LW1, and a series of question marks elsewhere. McKenna projects as a left winger. He could slide directly to LW1 alongside Matthews on day one if Knies shifts down a line.

Sources: Toronto Maple Leafs roster projection, PuckPedia 2026-27 cap chart. R = rookie.

That top line of McKenna-Matthews-Nylander has the highest projected combined point total of any line in franchise history if McKenna’s NHL projection holds. Realistic year-one expectation: 50-60 points for McKenna at age 18-19. Where Knies fits becomes a critical decision point for Bruce Cassidy or whoever the new bench boss ends up being.

Toronto’s Three #1 Picks in Franchise History

The historical context bears closer examination. Toronto has selected first overall only three times since the NHL Draft began in 1963. Each pick reshaped the franchise for a decade or more. Look at the pattern.

What This Pick Means for the Maple Leafs Roster

McKenna doesn’t solve every problem. Toronto still has a Tavares free-agency decision, an unresolved goaltending tandem, and a management overhaul that’s reshaping the front office under Keith Pelley. McKenna at #1 doesn’t fix the cap structure or the playoff history.

What he does fix is the long-term forward depth chart. With Matthews on the books through 2027-28 and McKenna on his ELC for the next three seasons, Toronto suddenly has a 2027-28 forward core anchored by two #1 overall picks playing on the same line. That’s a structural advantage no other Eastern Conference team can match.

The defensive side stays unsettled. Watch San Jose’s #2 pick conversation for whether Mike Grier trades his pick for a top-pairing defenseman. If the Sharks make that move, Toronto could reconsider their own pick path. Highly unlikely, but worth tracking.

Bruce Cassidy as next bench boss remains the leading rumor. Our three-year-closer breakdown projected him as the 2026-27 head coach. McKenna in the lineup gives Cassidy a different toy than the Marner-Matthews era. Cassidy’s structure-first system is exactly the environment a young winger needs to develop.

What Comes Next Between Now and June 26

Mark three checkpoints. The 2026 NHL Draft Combine in early June is where Toronto’s scouting staff confirms the McKenna selection. Watch for any McKenna interview anomalies, but expect zero red flags.

Mid-June, Toronto’s Pelley-led front office decides on the new GM. The new hire’s first major task: signing off on McKenna at #1 and structuring the contract. ELC value is fixed, but performance bonuses can stack. Expect a clean signing within two weeks of the draft.

June 26 itself, the announcement happens at the draft floor. Watch the body language when McKenna walks across the stage in a Maple Leafs sweater. Compare it to Matthews in 2016 if you want the full Echo experience. The franchise gets a bookend ten years later.

For the broader picture across all 32 teams, see our first-round mock draft predictions with tier breakdowns. Toronto at #1 is the only locked-in pick. Everything else cascades from McKenna going to the Leafs.

Adjacent storyline worth tracking. The Canucks GM search after Rutherford and Allvin were fired shows how lottery math interacts with front-office instability. Toronto’s situation under Pelley is less chaotic, but the McKenna pick will still test whether the new GM can execute Cup-window roster construction.

Sources and Reporting

• Daily Faceoff · Steven Ellis 2026 mock draft · primary mock draft source
• NHL.com · Toronto wins 2026 Draft Lottery · lottery confirmation
• Penn State Athletics · Gavin McKenna roster page · 2025-26 stats
• Wikipedia · Auston Matthews career profile · 2016 #1 pick precedent
• Penn State · McKenna Hobey Baker top-10 finalist
• College Hockey Inc · McKenna career stats · advanced metrics
• Wikipedia · 2016 NHL Draft history · Toronto’s last #1 context
• NHL.com · McKenna scouting profile · offensive skill assessment

The Verdict: Matthews Echo

I think this is a 91-confidence selection. Toronto picks McKenna on June 26 with a 99 percent likelihood, signs him to his ELC within two weeks, and pencils him into top-line training camp competition by September. The franchise gets another generational forward off the back of another lottery breakthrough. The 10-year wait between #1 picks compresses to a single announcement when McKenna pulls the Maple Leafs sweater over his head. Predict 50-55 points in his rookie NHL season and a Calder Trophy nomination by April 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who will the Maple Leafs pick #1 overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?

Penn State winger Gavin McKenna. Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis published the mock draft on May 6, 2026 confirming Toronto will select McKenna at the June 26 NHL Draft. McKenna is the consensus top prospect across all major scouting services including NHL Central Scouting, TSN’s Bob McKenzie rankings, and NHL.com’s Sam Cosentino top-5.

How long has it been since the Maple Leafs picked first overall?

10 years. The previous Toronto #1 selection was Auston Matthews in 2016. Before Matthews, the franchise hadn’t picked first since Wendel Clark in 1985, a 31-year gap. McKenna will be just the third #1 overall pick in Maple Leafs franchise history when selected on June 26, 2026.

What were Gavin McKenna’s 2025-26 NCAA stats at Penn State?

McKenna posted 51 points (11 goals, 36 assists) in 24 Big Ten conference games as an 18-year-old freshman. He set the Penn State single-season assist record at 36 and recorded 8 points (1 goal, 7 assists) in a single game vs Ohio State on February 20, the most points scored in an NCAA Division I game in 39 years.

Why is McKenna the obvious pick over Ivar Stenberg?

Pure offensive ceiling. Per Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis, McKenna has “the most game-changing skill in this class” and is the player who will “sell jerseys and get fans to love the team again.” Stenberg outperforms McKenna in two-way play, but the elite first-line offensive ceiling makes McKenna the obvious selection for a Toronto team needing star wattage.

Will Gavin McKenna play in the NHL in 2026-27?

Likely yes, but Toronto has flexibility. McKenna’s ELC begins on the date of his first NHL game. Toronto could either bring him to training camp and place him on the roster immediately, or send him back to Penn State for a sophomore season to delay the ELC clock. The most likely outcome is McKenna competes for an NHL roster spot in September with no minor-league plan B.

Who were Toronto’s previous #1 overall picks?

Toronto has selected first overall three times in franchise history: Wendel Clark in 1985 (15-year captain, 260 goals), Auston Matthews in 2016 (Hart Trophy winner, current captain, 60-goal season, $13.25M cap hit), and Gavin McKenna projected for 2026. Each pick produced either an All-Star or franchise captain.