The Pittsburgh Penguins just posted a 98-point season, finished second in the Metropolitan Division, and ended a three-year playoff drought, and Kyle Dubas is still cutting three players loose. Kevin Hayes, Noel Acciari, and Stuart Skinner are the three Pittsburgh Penguins not expected back in 2026-27, and their exit clears roughly $8.2 million off the books while leaving the franchise with $53.8 million in projected 2026-27 cap space. That's the math behind what I'm calling The Dubas Pivot: a mid-flight roster retool that unloads aging-contract UFAs while Sidney Crosby's window is still open, without blowing up the core.
The timing tells you everything. Pittsburgh entered Game 4 of its first-round series against Philadelphia down 3-0, with Hayes scratched, Acciari grinding a reunited fourth line that barely moved the needle, and Skinner carrying a goaltending department that got outplayed when the stakes spiked. None of those three is the reason Pittsburgh lost the series, but all three are on expiring deals and all three fit a profile Dubas has quietly been unwinding since he took over the front office. The playoff exit simply accelerates a decision already written on the wall.
This isn't a teardown. It's the opposite. Dubas and Fenway Sports Group have publicly committed to competing and rebuilding in the same window, the same tightrope that Dan Muse just walked to a surprise Jack Adams front-runner campaign.
Letting these three walk is how you protect the $53M of 2026-27 flexibility that makes that dual-track actually work. Here's the full breakdown of who's leaving, why, and what the cap math really says.
Key Takeaways
- The Dubas Pivot: Three pending UFAs (Hayes, Acciari, Skinner) aren't expected back in 2026-27 despite Pittsburgh's 98-point regular season, freeing cap while preserving the Crosby-Malkin-Letang core.
- The Hayes Math: Kevin Hayes produced just 8 points in 28 games while earning $3.571 million (Philadelphia retaining 50%). He was scratched repeatedly and cannot be justified for another year.
- The Acciari Replacement: At 34 with a $2 million AAV, Noel Acciari's bottom-six slot is already earmarked for cheaper in-house options like Ville Koivunen and Blake Lizotte.
- The Skinner Paradox: Pittsburgh acquired Stuart Skinner mid-season and got a 7-1-0 stretch (1.63 GAA, .934 SV%). He's a pending UFA whose price tag just spiked, and Dubas may let the market set it.
- $53M In Play: Pittsburgh's projected 2026-27 cap space is the third-highest in the league, arriving the same summer the cap ceiling climbs to $104 million. That's the actual weapon.
- The Setup: Kevin Hayes, Noel Acciari, and Stuart Skinner are the 3 Pittsburgh Penguins not expected back in 2026-27, all pending UFAs on July 1.
- The Cap Math: $8.2M in combined cap hits walk off the books. Pittsburgh enters 2026-27 with a projected $53.8M in cap space, third-most in the NHL.
- The Core Intact: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang all stay. Crosby is locked through 2026-27 at $8.7M AAV. Letang is signed through 2028.
- The Framework: This is The Dubas Pivot, a mid-flight roster retool that clears veteran UFAs without triggering a rebuild while Crosby's window stays open one more season.
- The Prediction: Pittsburgh extends Malkin at 2 yrs × $5M, signs one top-six UFA at $6-7M, and walks into training camp with $15-20M in mid-season flex cap.
A mid-flight roster maneuver in which a general manager clears aging-contract UFAs while the championship core is still intact, converting locked-in veteran money into strategic cap space without triggering a full rebuild. Pittsburgh is the 2026 prototype: three UFAs going out, $53 million coming in, Sidney Crosby's last competitive window still open.
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The 98-Point Season And The 3 Penguins Not Expected Back
Pittsburgh's 41-25-16 regular-season line looked like a contender's resume on paper. Dan Muse, in his first season as an NHL head coach, was a Jack Adams Award front-runner for guiding a team most analysts penciled in for a lottery pick back in October. The Penguins finished with the fifth-most goals-for per game and the sixth-fewest against.
Then the playoffs started. Philadelphia took the first three games of the ECQF, and the cracks that regular-season variance had covered up got exposed. FACT-CHECKED: NHL.com Scratching Hayes in that series was Muse's tell. A healthy scratch of a $3.5M forward in a playoff elimination game is the clearest roster signal a coach can send about a player's future.
What stands out to me is how cleanly Dubas has separated the two questions Pittsburgh has to answer. Question one: is Sidney Crosby's window still open enough to win in 2026-27? Answer: yes, but not with this exact roster.
Question two: does Pittsburgh have the cap flexibility to upgrade that roster without gutting the future? Answer: absolutely, assuming the three UFAs walk. Both answers point to the same action, and that action is the Dubas Pivot.
"The Penguins have much more flexibility than other teams and have an opportunity to capitalize on their cap space in a way that most other teams won't."
— The Hockey News (via Pittsburgh Penguins cap opportunity analysis)That flexibility doesn't exist if Dubas re-signs Hayes at even $1.5M, re-signs Acciari at even $1.5M, and re-signs Skinner at whatever the UFA goalie market is about to pay him. The whole playbook depends on saying no, collecting the cap, and letting Muse's young roster keep ascending while the money redeploys into upgrades.
Kevin Hayes: The Scratched $3.57M Forward
Hayes's 2025-26 line is the cleanest case. Four goals and four assists in 28 games is a 23-point pace over 82 games, worse than any bottom-six forward the Penguins had last year. He was a healthy scratch multiple times, lost three weeks to a lower-body injury in March, and was scratched again in the playoff series Pittsburgh is now losing.
The cap accounting makes the decision trivial. The Philadelphia Flyers retain 50% of Hayes's $7.142 million cap hit from the original trade that sent him to Pittsburgh, meaning the Penguins actually carry $3.571 million against the cap. That's still wildly above-market for what Hayes delivered.
According to PuckPedia, Hayes is expected to sign a league-minimum deal elsewhere in 2026-27 if he continues playing at all. My read on his trajectory is that he joins a contending team on a $775,000 PTO-to-deal pathway in September, not a multi-year commitment anywhere. The AAV-to-production math is simply no longer defensible on a team with this many younger forwards already pushing.
That makes Hayes the easiest subtraction in the same "not expected back" framework we applied to Nashville's NMC Trap Rebuild, except Hayes doesn't have the no-movement protection to complicate things. For a parallel on Penguins cap strategy, see our Yegor Chinakhov extension breakdown inside the Crosby window.
Noel Acciari: The 34-Year-Old Bottom-Six Bridge
Acciari's case is different, and harder. He's been a coach's favorite since he signed that 3-year × $2M deal in July 2023. He's the kind of bottom-six penalty killer that every contender claims to want, and he reunited with Connor Dewar and Blake Lizotte on the fourth line for the playoff run, a combination that posted some of Pittsburgh's best underlying metrics during the regular season.
The problem is the age curve and the internal competition. At 34, Acciari is on the wrong side of the checking-line peak (26-31). Koivunen is an RFA coming off an AHL campaign that demanded an NHL look, and Lizotte is cheaper. The math of retaining a $2 million bottom-six forward when a $775K prospect can fill the same role at the same penalty-kill efficiency is a math Dubas isn't going to solve in Acciari's favor.
Acciari's 5-on-5 Corsi-For percentage held at 52.1% on the reunited fourth line (meaning Pittsburgh generated more shot attempts than opponents when he was deployed), but that metric hasn't driven PK ice time the way volume blocks and face-off wins do. His value has always been context-dependent, which is exactly the kind of value that gets replaced.
My projection: Acciari signs a 1-year × $1M deal with a Western Conference contender like Vegas or Colorado before training camp opens. Pittsburgh moves on with a cheaper, younger checking-line that plays into the same system Muse built. The same insulation-layer dynamic we broke down in the Shanahan Nashville analysis applies here: aging depth pieces are the first ones cleared when a new regime commits to a youth philosophy.
Stuart Skinner: The Goalie Traded In, Traded Out
Skinner's is the strangest of the three situations. Pittsburgh traded Tristan Jarry plus Brett Kulak plus a 2029 second-round pick to Edmonton mid-season to get him, betting on a goaltending reset that paid off immediately. His last eight starts with the Penguins produced a 7-1-0 record, a 1.63 goals-against average, and a .934 save percentage.
His season totals (18-12-4, 2.65 GAA, .896 save percentage, 2 shutouts) are merely league-average. The playoff reality against Philadelphia has been closer to the season-totals version than the hot-streak version. A goaltender getting pulled in Game 2 of his first playoff series as a Penguin isn't what Dubas signed up for.
Here's the UFA math. Skinner turns 28 in November and is coming off a three-year, $7.8 million contract ($2.6M AAV). The 2026 goaltender UFA market is deep: Frederik Andersen, Sergei Bobrovsky, Connor Ingram, Jonathan Quick, David Rittich, Cam Talbot, plus Skinner himself.
Pittsburgh has Joel Blomqvist and Sergei Murashov in its prospect pipeline. My projection: Skinner walks to a team willing to pay $4.5-5M AAV on term (Edmonton even wouldn't go there), Pittsburgh tandems Blomqvist with a $2M UFA veteran, and Dubas converts the Skinner slot into $2-3M of additional cap relief. Track the broader goaltender market dynamics via our breakdown of the Bobrovsky Panthers extension pay cut, which is setting the ceiling for every 2026 UFA goalie contract.
The Dubas Pivot: $53M And The Crosby Window
Here's where the individual moves stop mattering and the pattern takes over. Pittsburgh's projected 2026-27 cap space of $53.8 million is the third-highest in the NHL, arriving in a summer where the cap ceiling climbs from $95.5M to $104M. That $8.5M one-year jump is the largest single-season increase since 2007-08.
The chart below shows what Pittsburgh's roster looks like post-pivot, organized by cap tier.
| Cap Tier 2026-27 | Players | Commitment | Pivot Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core (Locked) | Crosby · Letang · Rakell | ~$21M | KEEP |
| Expiring (Departing) | Hayes · Acciari · Skinner | $8.2M freed | PIVOT OUT |
| Extension Decision | Malkin (UFA) | TBD (~$6M) | RE-SIGN PROBABLE |
| Young Cheap | Lizotte · Koivunen · Blomqvist | ~$3M total | PROMOTE |
| Open Cap Space | Available for UFAs/Trades | $53.8M | DEPLOY |
The takeaway from that table is that Dubas isn't blowing anything up. Crosby stays. Letang stays through 2028. Rakell is on a long-term deal.
The retool is surgical: three UFA subtractions, three cheap promotions, and one mega check-to-write on July 1, 2026.
Crosby's own contract runs through 2026-27 at $8.7M AAV. Evgeni Malkin's extension talks were deliberately tabled until this season ends. Kris Letang is signed through 2028 at $6.1M, meaning the defensive core stays locked regardless of who the forwards turn out to be. That 20-year Crosby-Malkin-Letang arc (the first trio in North American pro sports history to hit 20 seasons together) still has one more season built into the architecture, and the Dubas Pivot is the mechanism that gives that final season real competitive teeth instead of nostalgia.
"Eight current contracts are set to expire ahead of the 2026-27 season, leaving the franchise with a projected $53.8 million in cap space."
— Yahoo Sports salary cap analysis (via Penguins unique cap opportunity)Eight expiring contracts, not three. The three I'm focused on are the three the front office has already publicly signaled aren't coming back. The other five are the negotiating room that keeps the Malkin-track and the depth-signings flexible. That's the second layer of the pivot most analysis misses.
Historical Parallel: Why 2026 Pittsburgh Isn't 2017 Chicago
The obvious parallel every columnist will reach for is the 2016-17 Chicago Blackhawks, the last team to try "compete + retool" simultaneously with an aging core. Chicago failed. Pittsburgh is positioned differently, and the cap numbers show exactly why.
In 2017, Chicago had Toews, Kane, and Keith locked into $10.5M, $10.5M, and $5.5M deals respectively, combining for $26.5M of the then-$75M cap (35.3%). Pittsburgh's equivalent core today (Crosby at $8.7M, Malkin at $6.1M, Letang at $6.1M) combines for $20.9M against a cap that's about to become $104M (20.1%). Chicago's cap strangle was roughly 75% worse than Pittsburgh's, which explains why their retool collapsed into a rebuild inside two seasons.
Dubas has the one thing Stan Bowman didn't: cheap future cap hits on a core that signed team-friendly deals ten years ago. That's the difference between "The Dubas Pivot" being a retool and being a rebuild. The same aging-core dynamic we documented in the Ovechkin 1,000-goal walkthrough applies here: what matters isn't the age of the stars, it's the cap friction around them. If you want the broader 2026 playoff context, our 16-Win Map ranks every path through the Stanley Cup bracket, and Pittsburgh's first-round exit already alters three of those paths.
The other parallel worth drawing is internal: the Penguins' own 2016-17 to 2019-20 transition. After back-to-back Cups, Jim Rutherford tried to keep competing with Phil Kessel and aging veterans, and the tax of overpaying depth on veteran deals cost Pittsburgh two seasons of flexibility. Dubas watched that from the outside while running Toronto. He isn't repeating it.
What Comes Next: The July 1 Shopping List
The $53M doesn't get spent on one name. My projection for the Penguins' July 1, 2026 moves, in order of likelihood:
- Extend Malkin at 2 years × $5M ($10M total) to honor the 20-season arc while freezing his cap hit at half his current AAV.
- Sign one top-six UFA: a right-shot scoring winger in the $6-7M AAV range. Think Anthony Mantha-type profile, maybe an analytics-orphan reclamation bet like Hoglander if the money lines up.
- Add a veteran goalie on a 1-year $2M bridge to tandem with Joel Blomqvist, making the goaltending $4M total instead of the Skinner-single-starter $4.5M+.
- Stockpile one more first-round pick via a deadline-style retention trade at the 2027 deadline if the team is out of contention. Pittsburgh currently holds 14-17 draft picks over the next three drafts, per front-office projections.
- Leave $15-20M open heading into training camp as mid-season weaponry, because the Dubas Pivot's final phase is in-season upgrades, not offseason splashes.
That's a retool plan, not a teardown. The three UFAs leaving aren't the story; they're the signal that the real moves are coming.
The Dubas Pivot Scorecard
How Kyle Dubas graded out against five retool-execution metrics.
Sources and Reporting
- NHL.com: Penguins season preview, retool through youth movement
- Yahoo Sports: $53.8M cap space projection, eight expiring contracts
- The Hockey News: Dan Muse Jack Adams Award candidacy context
- PuckPedia: Hayes $7.142M AAV contract structure, 50% retention
- Penguins.com: Acciari 3-year × $2M AAV signing announcement
- NHL.com: Skinner/Kulak/Jarry trade details
- The Hockey News: Penguins unique cap flexibility analysis
- ESPN: Crosby contract status, 2024-25 91-point season context
- NHL.com: 20-season Crosby-Malkin-Letang trio historical context
The Verdict: The Dubas Pivot
Kevin Hayes, Noel Acciari, and Stuart Skinner walking is the least interesting part of the Penguins' 2026 offseason. The interesting part is what Dubas does with the $53 million he'll have on July 1.
My projection is that Pittsburgh enters 2026-27 with a top-nine as good as any in the Metro and a bottom-six built cheaper and faster than the one that just got swept. The Dubas Pivot isn't a rebuild. It's a veteran GM refusing to pretend a 98-point regular season was a Stanley Cup team, while also refusing to mortgage Sidney Crosby's last competitive year. That's the trick, and this summer is when we find out if it works.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are 3 Pittsburgh Penguins not expected back in 2026-27?
Kevin Hayes, Noel Acciari, and Stuart Skinner are all pending unrestricted free agents after 2025-26 and their roles have cheaper in-house replacements ready. Hayes was scratched repeatedly during the playoff run, Acciari is 34 with Ville Koivunen pushing for his bottom-six spot, and Skinner is a pending UFA whose Edmonton-era $2.6M AAV will demand a raise Pittsburgh won't pay.
How much cap space will the Pittsburgh Penguins have in 2026-27?
The Penguins are projected to have $53.8 million in cap space for the 2026-27 season, which will be the third-highest total in the NHL. That number arrives the same summer the league's cap ceiling climbs to $104 million, giving GM Kyle Dubas one of the most flexible rosters in hockey to reshape.
Is Sidney Crosby still under contract with the Penguins for 2026-27?
Yes. Crosby signed a 2-year, $17.4 million extension in September 2024 with an $8.7 million AAV, keeping him in Pittsburgh through the end of the 2026-27 season. He turned 38 in August 2025 and led the team in scoring in 2024-25 with 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists).
What happened with the Stuart Skinner trade to Pittsburgh?
Pittsburgh acquired Skinner from Edmonton in a mid-2025-26 deal, sending Tristan Jarry, defenseman Brett Kulak, and a 2029 second-round pick in exchange. Skinner produced a 7-1-0 stretch with a 1.63 GAA and .934 save percentage in his first eight Penguins starts before regressing toward his season line of 2.65 GAA and .896 save percentage.
Will the Penguins sign Evgeni Malkin to an extension?
Extension talks with Malkin were deliberately tabled until after the 2025-26 season by both sides, and a 2-year team-friendly deal around $5 million AAV is the most likely outcome. Malkin has stated he wants to retire as a Penguin, and the Crosby-Malkin-Letang trio has just become the first in North American pro sports history to reach 20 seasons together.
What is The Dubas Pivot and how does it work?
The Dubas Pivot is the mid-flight roster strategy where Kyle Dubas clears aging-contract UFAs while the championship core remains intact, converting locked-in veteran money into strategic cap space without triggering a full rebuild. The 2026 Penguins are the prototype: three UFAs exit, $53 million in cap space enters, and Sidney Crosby's final competitive window stays open for one more serious run.
