Maple Leafs Win 2026 NHL Draft Lottery at 8.5% Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs walked into the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery on May 5 with the 5th-best odds at 8.5 percent, and walked out with the No. 1 overall pick. Five teams ahead of Toronto had better mathematical chances. None of them won. The Sharks took the No. 2 lottery, leaving the Leafs with their pick of Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg at the June 26 draft in Buffalo.

This is the third No. 1 pick in franchise history. Wendel Clark in 1985 was the first ever. Auston Matthews in 2016 ended a 31-year drought. Now, 10 years later, Toronto cashes another long-shot ticket while operating on $22.24 million in projected 2026-27 cap space and a brand-new GM in John Chayka. The math, the timing, and the prospect class all line up in a way that doesn't happen twice a decade.

I'm calling it the 8.5 percent ticket, and the franchise just punched it. Here's what Toronto actually won, what it costs, and where this goes next.

What Just Happened in Secaucus

Tuesday night in Secaucus, the league ran two separate draws to determine the top two picks. Toronto entered the first draw with 8.5 percent odds, fifth in the order behind Buffalo, San Jose, Nashville, and Chicago. The first 14 balls fell out wrong for everyone above them. The Leafs hit. Then San Jose won the second draw for No. 2.

The reaction was loud. Mats Sundin, now a senior executive advisor in Toronto's hockey operations group, said: "I'm extremely happy for the Toronto Maple Leafs fanbase, of course. It's great to get the first pick. Great night, great lottery." That's a pretty contained quote from a guy who carried the franchise for 13 seasons. Read between the lines and you can hear the smile.

New GM John Chayka, hired weeks after Brad Treliving's exit, was more direct. (Chayka previously served as Arizona Coyotes GM from 2016 to 2020 before a controversial mid-season departure during the COVID-19 bubble. Toronto is his return to NHL operations after a five-year layoff, and the lottery win lands in his lap inside week three on the job.): "You need some luck and we got it tonight. When you get a first overall pick, it's a monumental type of opportunity." Around the league, not everyone clapped. Paul Bissonnette went the other way on his podcast and called it rigged, per Pro Football Network's coverage of the post-lottery reactions. The TSN panel just said "Bailed out!" and laughed.

Both reactions track. Toronto missed the playoffs after a season I broke down in the Subtraction Spiral piece, and they fired Treliving in a chaotic GM-search cycle covered in the overcorrection-cycle article. The franchise looked broken in March. Three months later, it owns the most valuable asset in the sport. That's lottery-night vertigo.

McKenna or Stenberg: Toronto's 8.5% Ticket Decision

Here's the part the rest of the offseason will turn on. Toronto can pick Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg. The two prospects are wingers with similar builds, very different paths, and very different scouting reports. Below are the verified numbers from the 2025-26 season:

McKenna is the consensus No. 1 across NHL Central Scouting's North American board, and his WHL year was historic. The 51 points in 35 NCAA games as a 17-year-old put him among the most productive freshmen in college hockey. Per The Hockey Writers' scouting profile, his hockey sense and quickness give him "unteachable skills" that put him in his own tier. The flag: scouts noted in his early Penn State weeks that his work without the puck was underdeveloped, with too much energy spent waiting for offensive chances.

Verified Source

"Gavin McKenna is an elite talent with exceptional hockey sense, quickness and maturity which has allowed him to dictate the play and influence games at every level he's played."

, The Hockey Writers, 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Stenberg, by contrast, is the highest-ranked international skater per NHL Central Scouting. His 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 43 SHL games as an 18-year-old is the most produced by an 18-year-old SHL player since Daniel and Henrik Sedin in 1998-99. That's the ceiling comp. The knock per McKeen's Hockey scouting reports: his straight-line skating is fine but his agility and edge work lag behind his hockey IQ.

My read: Toronto picks McKenna. The NCAA-WHL résumé is louder, the scouting consensus tilts North American, and Chayka's first big call as GM is going to be the safest one. Stenberg is the contrarian play, the kind of pick a confident GM makes in year three. Chayka's in week three. Either way, no NMC clause until UFA-eligible years, which gives Toronto full trade flexibility on the entry-level deal.

The 8.5% Ticket Math: How Toronto Cashed a Long-Shot

Pre-draw, the lottery odds put Buffalo (16.5%), San Jose (13.5%), Nashville (11.5%), and Chicago (9.5%) ahead of Toronto. The Leafs sat at 8.5 percent. Per NHL.com's lottery rules, only the top two picks are determined by lottery; everyone else slots in by reverse standings.

The interesting part is that Toronto isn't the first low-odds winner recently. The pattern, per NHL.com, is that the Maple Leafs are the third team in the past six lotteries to win without holding the best odds. Chicago held the 3rd-best odds in 2023 and won the right to draft Connor Bedard. The Islanders held the 10th-best odds in 2025 and won the right to draft Matthew Schaefer. Toronto's 8.5 percent ticket fits the trend.

Verified Source

"You need some luck and we got it tonight. When you get a first overall pick, it's a monumental type of opportunity."

, John Chayka, Maple Leafs GM, post-lottery press conference (per NHL.com)

The Bissonnette "rigged" take got airtime, but the math doesn't support a conspiracy. With 14 teams in the draw and odds spread across the standings, low-odds wins happen roughly once every 24-36 months. Three in six years isn't a pattern, it's a small sample. Still, the optics of Toronto getting bailed out after a brutal regular season is going to fuel the chatter for weeks.

ELC Cap Math: How $950K Buys a $4.45M Player

The cap angle on this pick is wild. Whoever Toronto selects signs a three-year entry-level contract under the same template Connor Bedard signed in 2023. The base cap hit is $950,000. The full structure, including performance bonuses, can stretch to $4.45 million in any given year. Toronto pays $950K against the cap regardless.

Per Spotrac's breakdown of Bedard's deal, the structure runs: $855,000 NHL salary, $95,000 signing bonus, plus a $1 million Schedule A performance bonus and a $2.5 million Schedule B performance bonus on top. The Schedule A bonuses unlock at 20 goals, 35 assists, 60 points, top-six TOI, or top-three plus-minus. The Schedule B bonuses unlock at top-10 in any major league category or major individual award (Hart, Selke, Conn Smythe, Rocket Richard).

So Toronto's incoming No. 1 pick will hit the cap at $950K but cost up to $4.45M in actual dollars if he plays like Bedard. That gap matters because Toronto's 2026-27 books, per Spotrac and PuckPedia, project $22.24 million in cap space. With a $950K rookie added to a roster that still pays Auston Matthews $13.25M, William Nylander $11.5M, and the cap-strain math I covered in the $208M ceiling 9-Digit Era piece, the rookie max is essentially free roster help.

Look at the full cap picture. Toronto already has decisions stacking up around Matthew Knies' future, the Matthews July 1 bonus payment, and roster overhaul questions. Adding a $950K rookie max forward to that mix is the cleanest cap move available in the entire NHL ecosystem.

From Wendel Clark to McKenna: Toronto's #1 Pick History

This is only the third time in franchise history that Toronto has held the No. 1 overall pick. The previous two:

The historical pattern is interesting. Clark hit immediately. Matthews hit immediately. The hit rate on Toronto's #1 picks is, so far, perfect. Per Yahoo Sports' history piece, the 31-year gap between Clark and Matthews was a generational drought. The 10-year gap between Matthews and the 2026 selection is, by Toronto standards, a quick turnaround.

I think this is the under-told angle. Most fans focus on the prospect race. The story under the story is that Toronto is one of the oldest NHL franchises and didn't pick #1 a single time before 1985. Three picks in 41 years now feels like a different team. Whoever Chayka takes joins a list with one Hall of Famer (Clark) and one likely Hall of Famer (Matthews). That's a heavy jersey to put on at 18 years old.

What Comes Next: Trade-the-Pick Scenarios + Roster Fit

The big offseason question for Toronto isn't really McKenna vs Stenberg. It's keep vs trade. Multiple teams will ask. Per the GM-candidate scrambles around the league and the cluster of teams chasing star upgrades and the deep run that ends Toronto's Stanley Cup drought, Toronto's phone is going to ring with picks-plus-prospects offers.

Three trade markets to watch: a young defenseman package from one of the rebuilding teams (Anaheim, Chicago, San Jose), a goalie-plus-pick package from Florida or Carolina if either wants to push their window further, or a "swap with us" play from one of the other top-five teams looking to grab Stenberg if Toronto picks McKenna. Utah Mammoth (the franchise relocated from Arizona in 2024 and rebranded in 2025) doesn't have the prospect chips for this kind of trade. Boston, despite having Toronto's 2027 or 2028 first-rounder via prior trades, isn't in the conversation here.

Roster fit if Toronto keeps the pick: McKenna slots into a top-six winger spot next year as an 18-year-old, where he competes for ice time with the existing top-six and Matthews/Tavares/Nylander down the middle. The coaching call sits with whoever Chayka hires, with Bruce Cassidy in the rumor mix as a developmental fit for a young rookie winger. The cap math means Toronto can hold the rookie cheap for three years, which lines up perfectly with Matthews' last three contract years. By 2028-29, the bridge looks clean.

The other Toronto pieces that need watching: the RFA poaching list and rival cap pressure on teams forced to spend up to the floor, which both shape what Chayka can and can't do around his new rookie.

One prediction: Toronto keeps the pick, takes McKenna, and the rookie plays 70+ NHL games as an 18-year-old in 2026-27. Bedard played 68 in his rookie year as an 18-year-old. Stenberg, if Toronto goes that direction, is more likely to do another year overseas. McKenna's NCAA experience makes him North American-ice ready immediately.

Companion read:
Chayka's first big call as Toronto GM sits inside the broader 2026 NHL Coaching Carousel, where bench-staff evaluation comes next.

Sources and Reporting

• NHL.com: Maple Leafs Win 2026 Draft Lottery: Official lottery release with Sundin and Chayka quotes
• ESPN: 2026 NHL Draft Order Picks 1-16: Full lottery selection order
• The Hockey Writers: Gavin McKenna Draft Profile: Scouting report and stats
• Daily Faceoff: Stenberg Profile: SHL stats and scouting analysis
• PuckPedia: Toronto Cap Sheet: 2026-27 cap projections
• Spotrac: Bedard ELC Breakdown: Entry-level contract precedent details
• Yahoo Sports: Maple Leafs First Overall Pick History: Clark and Matthews historical context
• Bleacher Report: 2026 Lottery Results + Reaction: Full order and media reactions

The Verdict: The 8.5% Ticket

The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery handed Toronto the franchise's third No. 1 overall pick on 8.5 percent odds, after one of the worst regular seasons in recent franchise memory. The math says McKenna in Buffalo on June 26. The cap says $950K against a $208M ceiling. The history says Toronto's #1 picks deliver. My prediction: Chayka takes McKenna, Stenberg goes #2 to San Jose, and by Christmas 2026 the bailout-optics chatter dies because the rookie is producing. That's how the 8.5% Ticket cashes for real.

Frequently Asked Questions

When did Toronto last pick first overall in the NHL Draft?

Auston Matthews in 2016 was Toronto's most recent No. 1 overall pick. Before that, Wendel Clark in 1985 was the first time the franchise ever held the top selection. The 2026 draft makes McKenna or Stenberg the third No. 1 pick in Maple Leafs history, a gap of just 10 years from Matthews compared to the 31-year drought between Clark and Matthews.

What were Toronto's odds to win the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery?

Toronto held 8.5 percent odds entering the May 5 draw, the fifth-best chance in the lottery. Buffalo led the field at 16.5 percent, followed by San Jose at 13.5 percent, Nashville at 11.5 percent, and Chicago at 9.5 percent. The Leafs are the third low-odds team in six years to win, after Chicago at 3rd-best in 2023 (which became the Bedard pick) and the Islanders at 10th-best in 2025 (Schaefer).

How much does the 2026 No. 1 pick cost against the cap?

The first overall pick signs a standard three-year entry-level contract with a $950,000 cap hit, modeled on Connor Bedard's 2023 deal with Chicago. With Schedule A and Schedule B performance bonuses unlocked under the collective bargaining agreement, the actual annual value can reach $4.45 million if the rookie hits top-10 league marks or major awards. The cap charge stays at $950K regardless of bonuses, which is why the ELC is the most leverageable contract in the entire CBA.

Who will Toronto pick at No. 1 in the 2026 NHL Draft?

Gavin McKenna of Penn State and Ivar Stenberg of Frölunda are the two finalists. McKenna leads NHL Central Scouting's North American skater rankings after a 51-point freshman NCAA season and a historic 129-point WHL year. Stenberg leads the international rankings with 33 points in 43 SHL games, the best 18-year-old SHL season since the Sedin twins in 1998-99. The 2026 NHL Draft is June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo.