Winnipeg Jets Free Agent Targets: The Ehlers-Shaped Hole

Fifty-six wins and 116 points earned the Winnipeg Jets their first Presidents' Trophy in 2024-25 — and none of it mattered. Nikolaj Ehlers walked to Carolina for a six-year, $51 million contract on July 1, 2025, the Jets replaced him with committee scoring that never materialized, and the 2025-26 season ended at 82 points and sixth place in the Central Division. Now, heading into the 2026 offseason, Winnipeg's three most pressing free agent targets all share one trait: they can fill the Ehlers-Shaped Hole that turned a 116-point juggernaut into a team watching the playoffs from home.

The core is still elite. Kyle Connor just signed a nine-year, $12 million AAV extension. Mark Scheifele hit the 900-career-point milestone and finished north of 100 points. Connor Hellebuyck posted a 2.00 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage on his way to yet another Vezina Trophy. But none of that mattered without a complementary second-line winger who could take defensive attention away from Scheifele and Connor. Winnipeg scored just 223 goals in 2025-26 — 26th in the NHL — after putting up 296 the year before.

General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff knows the window is now. Connor is 29, Scheifele is 33, Hellebuyck is 33. The Jets have roughly $23 million in projected cap space for 2026-27 with the salary cap mechanics. That is enough money to make a significant addition — but only if Cheveldayoff spends it on the right player.

From 116 Points to 82: How Winnipeg's Winger Depth Collapsed

The warning signs were there before the puck dropped. When Ehlers chose the Hurricanes over re-signing in Winnipeg, the Jets lost a player who had averaged 27 goals and 60 points per season over his final four years with the team. Instead of replacing him with a comparable scorer, Cheveldayoff brought in veteran depth pieces like Gustav Nyquist and gambled that internal options could fill the gap.

They couldn't. The Jets opened 2025-26 in freefall compared to their Presidents' Trophy campaign the year before, when a 15-1-0 start had set the tone for a historic season. Without Ehlers stretching defenses on the second line alongside Cole Perfetti, opposing teams could load up against the Scheifele-Connor combination and dare Winnipeg's bottom six to beat them.

Friedman made that observation during the Jets' 9-1-0 start in 2024-25, and it defined Cheveldayoff's philosophy for a decade: when the window is open, spend. The problem is that last summer he didn't. He let Ehlers walk and plugged the hole with depth. Now, with the same window still cracked open, the front office has to revert to the aggressive playbook that built the Presidents' Trophy roster in the first place.

The underlying numbers paint a grim picture. Winnipeg's 223 goals ranked 26th league-wide, 73 fewer than their 2024-25 output. Their power play, which had been top-10 the year before, sank without a secondary triggerman. And defensively, allowing 239 goals suggested the problem wasn't Hellebuyck — it was the skaters in front of him generating so little offense that every defensive miscue became a critical blown lead.

The Ehlers-Shaped Hole: Why Committee Scoring Failed

Winnipeg's approach to replacing Ehlers mirrored what the Maple Leafs attempted after losing Mitch Marner — spreading one player's production across three or four lesser options. It failed in Toronto. It failed in Winnipeg too. The issue isn't just total production; it's the type of production. Ehlers was a transition player who could carry the puck through the neutral zone, create odd-man rushes, and force defenders to shade away from Scheifele and Connor.

Cole Perfetti, who was supposed to inherit the primary second-line winger role, put up a disappointing season on his $3.25 million bridge deal. Now he's a restricted free agent again, and the Jets need to decide whether to invest long-term or move on. Meanwhile, the deadline acquisition of Isak Rosen from the Buffalo Sabres added a speed element, but Rosen is a prospect — not a proven second-line finisher.

My read on this: Cheveldayoff tried the cheap route last summer and it cost the team a playoff spot. He won't make the same mistake twice. The question is which of the available options best replicates what Ehlers provided.

Three Free Agent Targets Who Can Fill the Ehlers-Shaped Hole

Here is how the three most realistic targets compare, with contract details verified through PuckPedia and CapWages:

Alex Tuch: The Top-Shelf Solution

If there is a single player in the 2026 UFA class who screams "Ehlers replacement," it's Alex Tuch. The 29-year-old right winger posted 31 goals and 63 points in 77 games for Buffalo — career-high production that came despite Buffalo's dismal team context. His 47.92% expected goals share (xGF%) — meaning his team was outchanced when he was on ice — looks underwhelming until you realize the entire Sabres roster was underwater analytically. On a competent team with real linemates, that number likely climbs above 52%. At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Tuch combines the skating speed and transition game that Ehlers brought with a physical edge that Ehlers never had.

The complication is price. Tuch's $4.75 million AAV expires this summer and his new deal will likely land in the $7-8 million range given his production arc. Buffalo GM Jarmo Kekalainen has publicly said the Sabres want to re-sign Tuch, stating that the organization "appreciates him" and "wants to get him signed." But if talks stall, Tuch becomes the premier UFA winger available on July 1.

My projection: Tuch signs for six years, $7.5 million AAV. If it's with Winnipeg, that still leaves room to extend Perfetti. If Buffalo locks him up first, the Jets lose their cleanest option.

Jordan Kyrou: The Buy-Low Gamble

Everything about Jordan Kyrou's situation in St. Louis suggests he's available. The Blues are in a full rebuild. Kyrou's 18 goals and 43 points in 69 games represent a significant drop from the 30-plus-goal, 70-plus-point seasons he posted in three of his previous four campaigns. And according to multiple reports, Kyrou is "open to a change of scenery."

The catch is his contract: $8.125 million AAV through 2031 with a full no-trade clause. Kyrou would need to waive that NTC to land in Winnipeg — a city that, fairly or not, sits near the bottom of most players' preferred destination lists. The Jets would also need to send meaningful assets back to St. Louis, likely a first-round pick plus a prospect, following the template the Blues established with Robert Thomas trade discussions.

What stands out to me about Kyrou is that his underlying talent hasn't disappeared — it's actually elite. His 60.0% expected goals share (xGF%) in 2025-26 is one of the best marks among all NHL forwards, meaning his team generated significantly more high-quality scoring chances than opponents when he was on ice. Yet his shooting percentage plummeted from a career average near 13% during his three consecutive 30-goal campaigns to roughly 8% — a classic regression indicator suggesting bad luck and tanking context rather than eroding skill.

Put Kyrou's 60% xGF% next to Perfetti and a real center, give him power-play time, and I'd bet the 30-goal version resurfaces within half a season. The question is whether the Jets are willing to pay $8.125 million plus trade assets for that bet when Tuch might be available for just dollars.

Bobby McMann: The Value Play

The most intriguing name on this list might be Bobby McMann. After the Maple Leafs traded him to Seattle at the deadline, McMann erupted for 10 goals in 16 games with the Kraken — a pace that, projected over a full season, would have put him above 40 goals. Combined across both teams, McMann finished 2025-26 with 28 goals and 45 points, both career highs.

Per Elliotte Friedman, the Kraken have expressed interest in signing McMann to an extension. But if Seattle and McMann can't agree on term or dollars, the 29-year-old becomes one of the most undervalued UFAs on the market. His $1.35 million cap hit this season was a steal, and his next contract will likely land in the $4-5 million AAV range — roughly half what Kyrou costs and a significant discount compared to Tuch.

McMann brings something neither Tuch nor Kyrou offers: he's 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, plays a heavy game, and was one of Toronto's most effective forecheckers before the trade. For a Jets team that needs to get tougher in the playoffs — they were bounced by Dallas in six games in the 2025 second round — McMann's physical profile matters.

Edmonton has also reportedly shown interest, but the Oilers would be the wrong fit. Despite roughly $17.8 million in projected 2026-27 cap space, Edmonton's forward depth chart is stacked — McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, and Nugent-Hopkins already occupy the top six. McMann would slot into a third-line role at best, averaging 12-13 minutes per night instead of the 16-plus minutes that fueled his breakout. Winnipeg, by contrast, offers a genuine second-line opportunity alongside Perfetti and Scheifele, the kind of deployment that turns a career year into a permanent ceiling raise. McMann's camp should recognize the difference between a contender that needs him and a contender that merely wants depth.

The Marian Hossa Precedent: When a Contender Bought the Missing Piece

The historical parallel that keeps coming to mind is Chicago's pursuit of Marian Hossa in 2009. The Blackhawks had young superstars in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, a Vezina-caliber goalie in Antti Niemi, and a roster that was close but not quite championship-level. They signed Hossa to a 12-year, $62.8 million contract in free agency — and won the Stanley Cup in 2010.

Winnipeg's situation rhymes. They have generational talent in their core four — Connor, Scheifele, Hellebuyck, and Morrissey carry a combined $35.25 million in cap hits. They have the goaltending. They have the defensive structure. What they don't have is the winger who unlocks the offense, the way Hossa unlocked Chicago's. The trade and free agency market this summer is loaded, and if the Jets play it right, they can find their Hossa.

The difference, of course, is Winnipeg's market. Hossa chose Chicago because of Kane and Toews. The Jets need to convince a UFA like Tuch that Scheifele and Connor are worth building around — and that Winnipeg is a place where championships get won, not just regular-season trophies collected.

What Winnipeg Can Actually Afford in 2026-27

The cap math matters. Per CapWages, the Jets currently have approximately $38.46 million committed for 2026-27 against an expected ceiling of $95.5 million to $104 million. That sounds like massive flexibility until you account for the gaps: Perfetti and Samberg need new contracts as RFAs, the bottom six needs filling, and Cheveldayoff may want to add depth on defense after moving Logan Stanley at the deadline.

Here's what the realistic budget looks like for a top-six winger addition:

That budget fits Tuch ($7-8M new deal) or McMann ($4-5M) comfortably. Kyrou ($8.125M) would work too, but the trade cost — picks, prospects, likely Brad Lambert plus a first-rounder — makes the total investment significantly higher. The Jets also carry the risk inherent in any NTC-protected trade target: if Kyrou doesn't waive for Winnipeg, the entire plan collapses.

Sources and Reporting

• PuckPedia — Alex Tuch contract details, UFA status, and career statistics
• PuckPedia — Jordan Kyrou contract ($8.125M AAV), NTC details
• PuckPedia — Bobby McMann contract and UFA status confirmation
• CapWages — Winnipeg Jets 2026-27 cap commitments, dead cap details, and roster projections
• The Hockey News — Jets "big swings" offseason strategy reporting
• Hockey-Reference — Winnipeg Jets 2025-26 season record and team statistics
• ClutchPoints — Jordan Kyrou trade rumors and "change of scenery" reporting
• CBC Sports — Nikolaj Ehlers free agency signing with Carolina Hurricanes
• NHL.com — Bobby McMann post-trade performance with Seattle Kraken

The Verdict: The Ehlers-Shaped Hole

The Jets don't need a rebuild. They need one player. The $35.25 million committed to Connor, Scheifele, Hellebuyck, and Morrissey buys a contention window that stays open for three to four more years — but only if someone fills the Ehlers-Shaped Hole on the second line. My projection: Winnipeg signs Alex Tuch to a six-year deal worth approximately $7.5 million AAV by mid-July, making him the highest-profile UFA signing in franchise history. If Tuch re-signs in Buffalo, Plan B is trading a first-round pick plus Brad Lambert to St. Louis for Jordan Kyrou. Either way, Cheveldayoff cannot afford another summer of half-measures. The 116-point team is still in there — it just needs one more wing to fly.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much cap space do the Winnipeg Jets have for 2026-27?

The Jets have approximately $38.46 million in committed salary for 2026-27 against an expected cap ceiling between $95.5 million and $104 million. After accounting for RFA extensions for Cole Perfetti and Dylan Samberg plus depth signings, Winnipeg should have roughly $7-12 million available for a top-six winger. The salary cap is projected to rise by $8.5 million from 2025-26 levels.

Is Alex Tuch a free agent in 2026?

Yes. Alex Tuch's seven-year, $33.25 million contract with the Buffalo Sabres expires at the end of the 2025-26 season, making him an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2026. He posted career highs of 31 goals and 63 points in 77 games this season. Tuch has never played for a playoff team in Buffalo despite four seasons with the Sabres, which may factor into his decision-making.

Can the Jets trade for Jordan Kyrou?

A trade is possible but complicated. Kyrou carries a full no-trade clause on his eight-year, $65 million contract. He would need to personally approve any move to Winnipeg. Kyrou has spent his entire seven-year NHL career exclusively with St. Louis and has never been traded, so waiving for a small-market Canadian team would represent a major lifestyle shift that complicates any negotiation beyond the usual asset cost.

Why did the Winnipeg Jets miss the playoffs in 2025-26?

After winning the Presidents' Trophy with 116 points in 2024-25, the Jets collapsed to 82 points and sixth place in the Central Division. The primary factor was losing Nikolaj Ehlers to Carolina in free agency without acquiring a comparable replacement. Winnipeg's goal total dropped from 296 to 223, a 73-goal decline that was the second-largest year-over-year drop in the NHL. Head coach Scott Arniel's system remained sound defensively but the offensive depth evaporated.

Will Bobby McMann sign with the Seattle Kraken or test free agency?

As of April 2026, Elliotte Friedman reported that the Kraken have expressed interest in signing McMann to an extension. However, McMann's camp may want to test the open market after his career-best 28-goal, 45-point season. The Edmonton Oilers have also reportedly shown interest. If McMann reaches free agency, his combination of size, speed, and affordable projected cost ($4-5 million AAV) would make him one of the most sought-after middle-tier UFAs available.